This is an easy one to calcucate, you don't even need to do real math. There's a spike in consumer demand due to COVID. People are pouring money into their houses rather than external entertainment and travel. That's a temporary change.
Re:Why wood has gotten so dang expensive
by dragontamer on Monday June 28, 2021 @01:45PM
(#27664996)
Between the stimulus checks, unemployment checks, and other such policies... as well as the Fed's continued reliance upon an expanded balance sheet (kinda sorta like QE), there's worries that the increased prices are at least partially caused by inflation.
If the inflation-dudes are right, then at least part of the price increase is permanent. That's why the calculations are necessary: because many people are making many different arguments about the future of this current economy.
The one who can predict the future will make money of course.
I don't know how to calculate if more sawmills are needed (permanent backlog) or if it's a temporary backlog. I figure that speculation is for the commodity traders and maybe some stock / sawmill speculators.
In practice, guess and check may scale better? But I've also been to towns where the sawmill shut down and destroyed the local economy, so guess and check may be immoral (even if it's somewhat profitable)