If all 300 million Americans get blood tested each year, that is 1 and a half MILLION people who are falsely told they have CANCER. One and a half MILLION people whose life gets turned upside down, WRONGLY, due to a blood test -- at least, until they take a second one. Or a third one. Or maybe they get unlucky never learn they don't have cancer, and mess up their life treating a disease they don't have.
Now, OBVIOUSLY not all 300 million Americans are going to get tested each year. But you are completely ignoring the ethical concerns surrounding telling literally .5% of those who don't have cancer that they have cancer, and the non-insignificant proportion of people who will never learn they don't have cancer (we NEED to consider even the "miniscule" probabilities at this scale), and that makes you seem like somebody who "think[s] they know better".
Culture adapts. Getting a cancer diagnosis today is a huge deal because testing is infrequent, usually in response to a problem, and the diagnosis tends to be late and accurate. If 1.5mm healthy people get a false positive every year, the general response will be stress until a second test confirms a false positive.
The lack of public trust in health policy doctrine, and the support for start-ups that can operate outside those channels, comes in large part from this type of thinking.
Getting a cancer diagnosis is a "huge deal" because getting cancer is one of the worst experiences a human can go through.
Getting cancer carries the weight of imminent death, obviously. But some cancers can be cured with high survival rate, so what's the big deal? The deal is that these cures are often brutal chemotherapy or radiotherapy or whatever treatments that destroy your body, your sleep, your appetite, your ability to go to the bathroom yourself, your ability to do chores by yourself, your ability to do anything a normal human being can do. They DESTROY you.
THAT'S the "huge deal". NOT the frequency. Cancer RUINS YOUR LIFE for the period you get treated, IF you survive the treatment at all, let ALONE the cancer. And you are proposing we tell sub-1.5 million people EACH YEAR that they might have to go through that, while STILL ignoring the proportion of the population that will never learn they have a false positive because they got unlucky (which, AGAIN, we need to consider, since even miniscule probabilities matter at this scale.)
So until the day we figure out a way to make getting rid of cancer as easy as popping a pill (we're getting closer thanks to gene therapy, but patients may still receive the destructive treatments in the meantime), culture will not "adapt", it will remain a "huge deal", and we will keep "this type of thinking".
I’ve never been given a cancer diagnosis, but I’d imagine it’s much, much worse to be told you have stage 4 cancer versus stage 1. As the other person stated, the culture would adapt and people would learn to not immediately sell their house and go on a Vegas bender just because a yearly preventative test said they might, possibly, perhaps have stage 1 cancer. If you are one of the people with a false positive, you schedule a follow-up and move on accordingly.
Your position is anti-progress just for the sake of being against accidentally scaring a few people. Indeed, we should let more people develop cancer and discover it at a later stage due to a small amount of false positives. Not scaring a small amount of people is more important than revolutionizing cancer screenings.
It's bad all the way.
> If you are one of the people with a false positive, you schedule a follow-up and move on accordingly.
People already do schedule follow-ups and additional tests and second opinions when they get a positive.
> Your position is anti-progress just for the sake of being against accidentally scaring a few people.
No, it is cautiously ethical because:
1. You probably shouldn't tell sub-1.5 million people who don't have cancer that they have cancer
2. There are more false positives than you think, if you are suggesting regular blood tests
And having a memento mori can be a positive thing.
Heart disease is a huge deal. It ruins your life. (Maybe not in all caps.) Nevertheless, we regularly test for it, including with techniques with high rates of false positives. Few panic because almost everyone knows someone who got a false positive and didn't promptly keel over and die.
If healthy adults are screened for cancer, there will be cultural memory of people who got a false positive. The response to a positive test result won't be chemo. It will be further testing, if non-invasive, or suggestions of lifestyle changes and increased monitoring of the suspected system.
People aren't too stupid to understand an early test with a high false positive rate. People with family histories of cancer don't wake up every morning screaming. Some may. But barring everyone because some people will overreact is why orthodox health policy is losing public trust.
People already get further testing. People already get second opinions. In the time you are changing your lifestyle (a good option for helping treatment, I agree) and increasing monitoring you could already be progressing beyond treatability.
You can argue about whether it's alright to tell sub-1.5 million people each year who don't have cancer that they have cancer (I don't think it is, but whatever). But again you can't disregard the non-insignificant number of people who get false positives.
edit: Actually, not "whatever". You probably shouldn't tell sub-1.5 million people each year who don't have cancer that they have cancer.
It just doesn't need to be as dire as what you are projecting.
That's actually a very good argument for early testing.
And needlessly scaring a some people into eating better and exercising more is about as bad as not screening them at all to avoid needless anxiety.
I think this leans more towards the "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" and less towards "tyranny of the majority".
You should read up more on growth mindsets. People and technology aren’t fixed. They change and improve over time.
If people had your attitude about AIDS we would have let all AIDS patients die because “oh well nothing we can do.”
Luckily those with growth mindsets and optimism didn’t listen to people like you and now AIDS patients take a single pill a day.
The same could happen with cancer to, but not if people like you are in charge.
No, if people had my attitude about AIDS they would say "Jesus Christ, don't tell 1 and half million people each year who don't have AIDS that they might have AIDS." I am talking about diagnosis, not treatment.
Early diagnosis means new ways of treating cancers like liver and pancreatic. You don’t seem to understand this. Right now there is practically no treatments for either because it’s detected so late. Maybe after 20 years of early diagnosis we can treat pancreatic cancer the same way we do others.
Let me guess. You were telling people in early 2020 that N95 masks don’t work.
I agree if we had a test that was 100% accurate (literally never gave a false result either way), only detected dangerous cancers, and cost $1 then that would be a game-changer, but the screening and tests so far are not that.
We give blood glucose level tests and cholesterol tests to everyone every year at the physical because they are cheap and easy to administer. Even though the effects of both may take decades to have any effect and have no correlation to ultimate death. It’s about trade off of cost and convenience.
If you detect pancreatic or colon cancer in a 20 year old patient via $1 blood test, that is immediately actionable. Cancer is ALWAYS actionable unless you’re talking about prostrate which grows slowly. But even in a 20 year old, you would want to treat that but maybe not a 70 year old.
And we’ve never had the ability to detect stage 1 cancer of the deadliest types of cancer. Imagine the new treatments that might save lives if we could.
Honestly, the number of people here who think they know better and citing unrelated research is bordering on anti-maskers parroting the surgeon general saying masks don’t work when they do.