The US year-on-year excess death charts are much smoother than those for a small country like Belgium for example for this reason.
So yes, Scotland has too few people for you to see much in this data due to all the noise, humans easily see patterns where there aren't any.
2) This sort of nonsense generally posits some vague association between vaccination and negative outcomes and isn't too interested in trying to imagine an actual mechanism that would inevitably be debunked.
3) It's also noteworthy that over this same period the case rates subsided in the UK considerably. Whether I'm vaccinated against the disease or not, if nobody I meet has the infectious disease I'm not going to catch it from them.
IMNSHO a much more significant effect, which I measured over the whole UK since that's the data I had, was that the ratio between those dying aged 90+ and those dying at my age fell dramatically a few weeks after they were vaccinated - exactly as you'd expect if vaccinations work.
Before the uptick due to the Delta variant, the best overall week for UK COVID deaths seemed to be at the end of May, but if you were a young adult, say age 25, death rates were actually still higher than last summer - the overall rate was low because rates were now far better for the elderly. Because of course they'd been vaccinated. Next week vaccination will be offered to all English adults who have not previously qualified (e.g. because they were too young and had no other vulnerability) so by August the proof will be in whether that arrests further transmission or not.
Countries that pursued elimination (e.g. New Zealand) are still doing better, because, vaccine or no vaccine, if nobody has the virus then nobody can die from it.
1) The weekly excess death tend to always largely fluctuate as far as I know.
2) If there really is a causation between excess death and vaccination, shouldn't the number of weekly excess death increase when the relative in crease in the amount of vaccinated people is higher (e.g. the steps between the measurement points is larger)?
3) The drop at the end is also easily explainable, it's a statistics over the first vaccination and vaccination takes some time to take effect and increasingly more people over the same time got vaccinated and once a large amount of people are vaccinated the excess death due COVID will notable fall. So not really that surprising.
Did I miss something?