It won't ebb down. Eventually we'll hit limits of what's practical on current hardware and we'll be back to the 70's and 80's when everything becomes theoretical until hardware catches on. AI is going to continue to advance.

What will happen is that capital will become more skeptical about the limits of what's feasible with AI and it'll be harder to sell bullshit. You're already seeing that with companies like Uber selling off their self driving divisions.

What do you mean by 'won't lead us anywhere'?

It might or might not give us AGI. But it is already leading us to lots of places. Eg speech recognition even on my phone works way better than what I had twenty years ago on a Desktop.