Re:Kelly Criterion – how to calculate optimal bet sizes
by confidantlake on Wednesday June 09, 2021 @06:06PM
(#27453894)
If the odds of an under happening is 50% then that is indeed a great bet! The odds of winning would be (0.5)^8 or 1 in 256.
So the EV of the bet would be
E(x) = (1/256 * 1000) - (255/256 * 3)
E(x) = .91796875
So you are expected to make nearly 92 cents on every 3 dollars bet. Over a 30% return! Any bookie offering these odds would quickly go broke.
E(x) = (1/256 * 1000) - (255/256 * 3)
E(x) = .91796875
So you are expected to make nearly 92 cents on every 3 dollars bet. Over a 30% return! Any bookie offering these odds would quickly go broke.