Re:If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pens...
by adventured on Wednesday June 09, 2021 @03:38PM
(#27452149)
Yep.
Japan's urban population is somewhere between stagnating and declining, not increasing. The contraction trend is even worse in most of their cities other than Tokyo.
Simultaneously the percentage of the population that is urban, is very slowly increasing.
Those are two very different things. Their cities are net contracting in population. They're now nationally losing people faster than they're urbanizing. They're currently losing around a quarter of a million people per year nationally. Their cities are not expanding faster than that drop. And given their already very high urbanization rate (and very slow rate of urbanization increase), it's unlikely anything will significantly change in that regard. This decade will see either a mostly flat population trend in Tokyo, or a modest contraction. What it won't show, is a meaningful expansion, as their national population contraction gets worse.
The pandemic put enough pressure on Tokyo that it actually contracted for the first time in ~25 years.
February 25, 2021
"Tokyo, Feb. 25 (Jiji Press)--Tokyo's estimated population fell by 662 from a year before to 13,952,915 as of Feb. 1, marking its first year-on-year decline in about 25 years, the metropolitan government said Thursday."
However, if you go back further, you can see the trend was already toward decline. This is from 2019:
June, 2019, The Guardian
"Has Tokyo reached ‘peak city’?"
"One could argue that the world’s biggest city has hit a sweet spot: a flatlining population, pervasive transit and little gentrification. But is ‘peak city’ even possible – and where does Tokyo go from here?"
"Unlike many megacities, the world’s largest metropolitan area has largely stopped growing, either in land or population."
Japan's urban population is somewhere between stagnating and declining, not increasing. The contraction trend is even worse in most of their cities other than Tokyo.
Simultaneously the percentage of the population that is urban, is very slowly increasing.
Those are two very different things. Their cities are net contracting in population. They're now nationally losing people faster than they're urbanizing. They're currently losing around a quarter of a million people per year nationally. Their cities are not expanding faster than that drop. And given their already very high urbanization rate (and very slow rate of urbanization increase), it's unlikely anything will significantly change in that regard. This decade will see either a mostly flat population trend in Tokyo, or a modest contraction. What it won't show, is a meaningful expansion, as their national population contraction gets worse.
The pandemic put enough pressure on Tokyo that it actually contracted for the first time in ~25 years.
February 25, 2021
"Tokyo, Feb. 25 (Jiji Press)--Tokyo's estimated population fell by 662 from a year before to 13,952,915 as of Feb. 1, marking its first year-on-year decline in about 25 years, the metropolitan government said Thursday."
https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2021022500969/
However, if you go back further, you can see the trend was already toward decline. This is from 2019:
June, 2019, The Guardian
"Has Tokyo reached ‘peak city’?"
"One could argue that the world’s biggest city has hit a sweet spot: a flatlining population, pervasive transit and little gentrification. But is ‘peak city’ even possible – and where does Tokyo go from here?"
"Unlike many megacities, the world’s largest metropolitan area has largely stopped growing, either in land or population."
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jun/14/has-tokyo-rea...