Ellsberg's worried about nuclear war. That would be worse than China getting TSMC.

However, as far as TSMC is concerned, the likely outcome of an invasion would be that TSMC in Taiwan permanently shuts down: https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan

> the likely outcome of an invasion would be that TSMC in Taiwan permanently shuts down

It would turn into rubble.

There is no way that facility would be ceded.

There are real people on the other side as well. Don't forget them.

I'll give you some food for thought.

During WW2 Allies bombed 3rd reich's weapon factories, and occupied French cities. A lot of civilians died, really a lot.

Do you think semi-enslaved German citizens working in 3rd reich's weapon factories wanted any much less to have these factories bombed?

Do you think French under German occupation wanted any much less to have British bomb the occupied cities?

No, survivors recall it seeing occupation government buildings bombed the most joyful moments, which led a lot of people to regain their spirits, and join the resistance.

MAD. I don't think anyone in the US or China is going to nuke anyone else because of survival instincts. There must be chain-of-command and multi-party custody controls in the militaries of all nuclear powers to prevent unauthorized release. In such stable cases, they become worse than White Elephants: can't get rid of them because of the liabilities of inviting nuclear and conventional wars, and can't keep them because they're expensive, inherently dangerous, and tempting for crazy people to use.

Economic interdependence also creates another layer of protection from either side going too far because of the economic warfare potential before nuclear or conventional wars would be considered.

I'd suggest reading Ellsberg's book (The Doomsday Machine) detailing the risks imposed by MAD.

China is reaching the point where they could invade Taiwan and be confident of getting away with it, but they're not quite there yet. We're currently in a narrow window where the US could and should unilaterally recognise Taiwanese statehood and commit to a firm security guarantee.

China is constrained by its reliance on western markets. Full stop. It would hurt to pull the plug, but if they cross a line it will happen and they know it.

Before Hong Kong I would probably have agreed with you, but You're assuming a purely rational reasoning. For China, and Xi in particular, there is a big element of national and personal pride at stake. It's for the same reason they have risked strangling Hong Kong in order to bring it more in line with the rest of China.

Xi (more so than his predecessors) is quite happy to take a short term loss for (what he sees) as a long term gain. In addition, he would love to be remembered in history as the man he reunified China.

Furthermore, Hong Kong and Crimea show that western powers aren't spoiling for a fight - especially if you can present them with a fait accompli.

Agreed. This is what an obsessive focus on "facts and logic" at the expense of a similar focus on emotion, instinct, and subjectivity gets you. People have values that often contradict rationality, and in too many cases they're ready to kill and die for them.

The US is completely dependent on China for manufacturing. China is completely dependent on the US for funding development. It would be bad news for either frenemy to start anything major.

Their posture is potentially lessening that dependency somewhat though - a company I work with, for example, now tries to find suppliers in Malaysia, Thailand, etc. for metalwork, PCB manufacture, assembly and things like that, which all would have just gone straight to China five years ago. This is a pretty small manufacturer with a fairly niche product, but I imagine others are thinking the same way.

But the western markets rely on china.

Basically, if we "built the wall", they'd still have all the stuff, and we'd have increasingly more worthless numbers in our bank accounts.

Relying on one country for most of our production needs is stupid.

Now it is. But their population alone is larger than all the western markets combined, so it probably won’t remain so indefinitely.

That's far from a settled position in Taiwan itself, though.

By your definition that would be committing to an untenable position.

The political dynamics are very different if China invades after US recognition of Taiwan rather than before. (Especially if they station a tripwire force there like in Estonia).

As of right now, TSMC is the same as a tripwire force, and IMO the Chinese leadership knows that. But hopefully that will stop being true as this Arizona facility comes online and we regain top-tier capabilities.

If it stops being a critical national security issue for us? I don't really care. Like, I'm for self-determination and all that but I don't care more about Taiwan than I do about Yemen, and I and the rest of America definitely do not care about Yemen.

> As of right now, TSMC is the same as a tripwire force

No it isn't. China can occupy Taiwan without killing thousands of US soldiers. That matters, politically.

> If it stops being a critical national security issue for us? I don't really care. Like, I'm for self-determination and all that but I don't care more about Taiwan than I do about Yemen

It's not about Taiwan, it's about China. If they successfully annex Taiwan they'll eat the rest of the world too, one bite at a time, and drawing the line in the sand will get harder and harder.

ASML will be happy to ship your steppers to wherever you order them. Chip fabrication is so critical that a facility should be created on each continent.

I am not up to speed on semiconductor manufacturing national security efforts, but it seems like the US is behind in subsidizing renewed semiconductor manufacturing and supply chains on US soil, and time is running out.

> If China invades Taiwan they'll be able to hold the rest of the world hostage because of TSMC. It's still a lose-lose situation.

No, this is not true. China depends on foreign technology much, much more than anyone depends on TSMC. Just look at the Huawei and ZTE sanctions.

Not to mention if China had that much leverage in the game they could easily sanction Taiwan and cut off probably a majority of its business dealings before resorting to invasion by force.

Did you know that Taiwan and China (pre-covid) could freely travel between the countries more or less, and even setup business like Foxconn that profit off Chinese labor? There's literally more cooperation between Taiwan and China than US and Cuba.

>> Did you know that Taiwan and China (pre-covid) could freely travel between the countries more or less, and even setup business like Foxconn that profit off Chinese labor? There's literally more cooperation between Taiwan and China than US and Cuba.

This is because China had been attempting a policy of economic (and cultural) engagement with Taiwan for the best part of 20 years, up until the election of Tsai Ing-Wen in 2016. China had pursued this policy while the KMT were in power in Taiwan; the KMT are generally considered to favor closer ties between China and Taiwan. Things have changed a bit since the DPP (the more "anti-China" of Taiwan's two major political parties) won the 2016 and 2020 elections. I certainly don't know what the future holds, but I think China has now concluded that reunification through cultural/economic links is unlikely to succeed, not least because the idea of "one country, two systems" looks even less attractive after the events in Hong Kong.

>No, this is not true. China depends on foreign technology much, much more than anyone depends on TSMC.Just look at the Huawei and ZTE sanctions.

Maybe this is still true for now, but that too is changing. China was already wary of that dependency and put efforts underway to rid itself of this dependency. The Huawei and ZTE sanctions only had the effect of putting these efforts into hyperdrive. [1] gives an overview of historic and current efforts. tl;dr China is not yet close to self-sufficient but they are spending like crazy and making major progress.

Give it another 10, 15 years and the picture might look quite different, if it even takes them that long. And China is playing the long game anyway.

[1] https://semiengineering.com/china-speeds-up-advanced-chip-de...

The positive outcome is avoiding a nuclear war and hundreds of millions dead. If we don't want to be held hostage because of TSMC the answer is to build up our own industry domestically, not destroy human civilization.

The article concerns the year 1958, I'm pretty sure we were still using vacuum tubes at that time.

Pneumatic tube systems still are in operation, and popular especially in hospitals. Turns out it is far quicker than having to carry around medicine from the central apothecary.

GP is likely referring to the use of electron tubes [1] perhaps juxtaposing (hypothetical Taiwanese) tubes in 1958 with TSMC today(?). A decade earlier, however, the transistor was invented and would replace the use of tubes, at least for computers.

Tubes, aka valves, are still popular in professional and consumer audio equipment, vintage and contemporary microphones, amplifiers and compressors.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_tube