I think this is backwards.
We saw during the pandemic a mass exodus from cities. Once people could work from home, they decided they didn't want to live in a city anymore.
Once you remove the burden of commuting, suburban / rural life becomes _even more_ attractive, increasing the need for cars.
IMO it’s too early to claim that. People left the city during the pandemic because there was no point paying the premium to live in a city when all its amenities are closed. As cities open back up we might see a lot of people return. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of early career folks in their 20s that moved back in with their parents during the pandemic to save cash. That most certainly isn’t their long term plan.
I don’t doubt that a good number of folks won’t return to the city once this is over. But I wonder if that’s just an acceleration of moves they would have already made in the next 5 years or so, rather than something indicative of the death of cities.
People who are betting against urban life are basically making a bet against human nature based on short-term trends.
A city is an entirely different experience when its residents are allowed to use parks and can enjoy dining out, walking to a market, strolling to the cinema, etc...
I think the pandemic highlighted a key deficiency of cities which most people will not soon forget.
Now it's more congested, but traffic still moves pretty quick. I'm not looking forward to all the commuters going back to the office.
And the one car I do have could potentially last me the rest of my life because I've gone from commuting 12k miles per year (time 2), down to around 3000.
My last two bus trips had betwen1 and 5 people blatantly ignoring the mask requirements and this is in on of the UK covid hot spots.
Me too, but GP has an argument along these lines here.
Commute is a big, and often deciding factor, in private car ownership. Get rid of it, and most drivers will lose the major reason for owning a car. Expand the delivery systems for day-to-day stuff like groceries, and another big reason - buying in bulk - goes away. While people living in sparsely populated areas will still need their cars, the dwellers of large cities with serviceable public transport infrastructure might be more inclined to get rid of their cars, and just rent one for an occasional out-of-town errand.
In this way, normalizing work from home creates top-down pressure for reducing the number of private cars in use.