and FB isn't?
"People didn't join facebook because it was more compelling,"
exactly!
"they left myspace because it had degenerated to a ghetto and facebook was the most viable option."
And now there is even more viable option on the horizon...
It's like we've all forgotten who the 800 lb gorilla is! Google's launchpad is tree-mendous. The show is just getting started.
Will people use it? Sure, but I doubt that millions of users will actually leave FB for Google+.
http://www.zephoria.org/thoughts/archives/2007/06/24/viewing...
True, and in fact, they are so much greater in magnitude that they're no longer always a good thing.
I don't benefit from any 'network effects' when my mother, my boss, my wife, my girlfriend, and the kid who used to beat me up for lunch money in 4th grade are all part of my one and only 'network.' If Facebook doesn't get a clue about that, Google can and will eat their lunch.
Come on now, isn't it a bit premature to make a statement like this?
Google has positively sucked at social every time they tried anything until Google+. Now they have something that is obviously a lot better and interesting in many ways, but I don't understand why the bubble pundit set is frothing at the mouth so vigorously. They have a huge road ahead to compete with Facebook in any meaningful way.
Everyone wants to sound the Facebook death knell, but you can't look at Friendster or MySpace for historical lessons, neither of those sites crossed the chasm, and both suffered from severe technical setbacks that hampered development. Despite the valley mentality of always searching for the next big thing, there's no sign that the public at large has any appetite for a new social network. It could well be that social network adoption was a fad, and Facebook just becomes the defacto standard for non-techies, and the up-and-comers all end up serving smaller niche audiences. I'm not saying that's what I believe will happen because I think it's foolish to make any predictions about something as volatile as social networking, but it certainly seems just as likely to me as Google+ just up and "eating Facebook's lunch".
Facebook has always had a "public by default" feel to it. Most people have adjusted their behavior, and their expectations, accordingly. The circles feature will take some serious marketing by Google before it becomes a killer feature for anyone but highly technical people. At that point, all facebook would have to do is make lists for visible to mitigate any mass defection. The ball will always be in facebook's court, until some major redefining feature is invented by an upstart.
The concept of social networking was still being defined. Now, facebook is social networking in most people's minds. The concept has been solidified. Google's recent offering does nothing to reinvent the concept.
Also, social networking was still something mostly young people were into. The network-effects now are much greater in magnitude than they were then.
The biggest factor in myspace's downfall was that it was perceived as a "ghetto" (I had multiple people describe it to me as such). People didn't join facebook because it was more compelling, they left myspace because it had degenerated to a ghetto and facebook was the most viable option.
The social networking battle is facebook's to lose, not google's to win. As long as facebook doesn't stumble majorly, they're not going anywhere.
edit: There is a serious anti-facebook downvote brigade going around here.