World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Years

Re:World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Y... by lettergram on Thursday May 27, 2021 @07:14PM (#27309768)

I’ve implemented models for two well cited published papers. While I didn’t develop the model I implemented it. I’m familiar with those “professionals”.

These models are notoriously bad at generating predictions historically. Today, we have better modeling, BUT they rerun the models over and over again tweaking them to get the results they want. Then they don’t do corrections such as Bonferroni correction.

At the end of the day, the data isn’t there.

Finally, the funding and scientific community have a bias. Good luck trying to come out with a paper showing the community is not taking everything into account or has made a mistake.. you can only do that with new data, which takes years or decades

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Re:World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Y... by not_kurt_godel on Thursday May 27, 2021 @07:36PM (#27309948)

So I guess it's just a coincidence that the predictions about global temperature rise that the models have been making for decades are coming true? And, if anything, it's turning out that they have been too conservative in their estimates of the rate of warming?

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