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A comment on World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Years. Parent comment

Re:World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Y... by Marsymars on Thursday May 27, 2021 @04:11PM (#27307712)
> Thus for the average woman in Somalia with 6 children, statistically, none of her children will actually die.

If deaths are evenly distributed at 12%, there's a 54% (1-0.88^6) chance a woman will have at least one child die.

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Re:World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Y... by wearywanderer on Thursday May 27, 2021 @04:58PM (#27308452)
If a woman has 3 children at those odds, there is a 99.8% chance at least one child will live. If she has 4 children, it goes up to 99.997%. Having 6 children is clearly an overcompensation given this level of risk (99.9997% of one or more out of 6 living.)
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