World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Years

Re:World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Y... by ArkanExplorer on Thursday May 27, 2021 @03:30PM (#27307127)

That meme is not backed up by the statistics. Childhood mortality has fallen all across the planet.

For example in Somalia only 12% of children will die before age 5:

https://knoema.com/atlas/Somalia/Child-mortality-rate#:~:tex....

Thus for the average woman in Somalia with 6 children, statistically, none of her children will actually die.

If childhood mortality was such a major issue, then the population would be stable - instead of doubling every two decades.

Childhood mortality is also likely to be worsened by having multiple children, since it reduces the number of resources available per child.

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Re:World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Y... by jandrese on Thursday May 27, 2021 @03:59PM (#27307505)

5 is a bit too young for a child soldier. Gotta wait until they are 10. 5 is also too young to have kids.

Also, that woman with 6 children has roughly a 50/50 chance of at least one of them dying before age 5.

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Re:World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Y... by JoeAltmaier on Thursday May 27, 2021 @04:59PM (#27308467)

It may be tangled up in the number of children. Spreading resources over more children may put them all further into that 12% category?

Anyway it seems to be true that child mortality has dropped across the board. US child mortality used to be almost 50% (in 1800). Now its around 0.7%. Somalia is about where the US was in 1925.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041693/united-states-al...

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Re:World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Y... by Marsymars on Thursday May 27, 2021 @04:11PM (#27307712)

> Thus for the average woman in Somalia with 6 children, statistically, none of her children will actually die.

If deaths are evenly distributed at 12%, there's a 54% (1-0.88^6) chance a woman will have at least one child die.

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Re:World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Y... by wearywanderer on Thursday May 27, 2021 @04:58PM (#27308452)

If a woman has 3 children at those odds, there is a 99.8% chance at least one child will live. If she has 4 children, it goes up to 99.997%. Having 6 children is clearly an overcompensation given this level of risk (99.9997% of one or more out of 6 living.)

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