Take Germany as an example of stagflation. Last year we had to fell a lot of trees because bark beetles. Everyone was dumping their bad lumber. A CDU politician introduced a 85% quota so that the markets can recover but now the situation has reversed and some forest owners are not allowed to harvest their lumber despite high prices. For small businesses losing those last 15% may make it unprofitable to harvest at all. Making it illegal to run businesses serving hot markets is a recipe for cost increases without corresponding wage increases.

However, in the US the investment rate is going up and businesses are expanding production. The biggest factor right now is the semiconductor shortage and there it is just a matter of time before things return to normal.

Anecdotally, I've become skeptical of US business investment and production metrics. Companies can ramp up investment into assets or expand production of assets without producing consumer/b2b goods.

We capture increased production and investment in speculative assets as economic growth when it may not yield any new production.

> It's surprisingly plausible that wages would not rise and inflation would speed up.

I agree entirely. But the linked article explicitly blames increased deficit government spending. The article reads like a stealth attack on stimulus, with the implicit point that inflation should be controlled by ending it, rather than looking more deeply at causes like the ones you suggest -- which might lead to solutions that a Forbes contributor might not like, like taxing the rich.