> Google did a similar calculus, with a different set of values (if not an entirely different set of variables altogether) and came up with a different answer. Although it's interesting to see how their position has shifted over the years to be a bit more like Apple in some regards.

It didn't shift. Google had the same calculus with the same answers. Only Google never had the hardware, so AOSP was a way to make sure Android is everywhere.

There's a great Ars Technica article about this: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/09/owning-the-stack... They all want to own the smartphone stack.