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Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by WorldMaker on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @01:25PM (#27198020)
I wish there was a better name for an "order of magnitude fallacy" (but given Roman numerals I can understand why they probably didn't have a fun Latin name for an order of magnitude problem), because we seem to be seeing them all the time right now.

Industrial production of greenhouse gases is nearly an order of magnitude larger than consumer production, but often inordinately the "guilt" burden is pushed to the consumers: Do you have an EV? Have you changed all your light bulbs to more efficient LEDs? Are you Vegan enough?

Here too: Bitcoin alone has risen to an order (or three) of magnitude more energy consumption than Facebook could ever use/do ever use to track people. (Cumulative, the rest of cryptocurrencies only further dwarf Facebook's comparative energy costs.) We can be angry about two things, we can be angry at both, but why can't we discuss the bigger problem first without getting into the weeds of all the smaller problems?

(And of course, the two order of magnitude problems above are inextricably linked: Bitcoin is on track to make many industrial users of electricity look like chumps and dwarf them by an order of magnitude. Nearly all of the consumer-side gains from veganism, LED lightbulbs, EVs has been offset again, if not entirely dwarfed, by cryptocurrency mining.)

People are bad at reasoning things at large enough scales, have a hard time gut understanding order of magnitude problems, so the fallacies keep creeping up, and keep getting weaponized by bad agents (the consumer "green guilt", the consumer "recycling guilt", so many other "demand-side fallacies" that if consumers just bought "smarter", problems would just go away, when really it's the suppliers that are in control).

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by panarky on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @12:13AM (#27204495)
How is comparing Bitcoin's energy usage with other endeavors an "order of magnitude fallacy"?

Gold mining uses something like 140 terawatt-hours of energy annually, and produces enormous pollution and environmental destruction in addition to that.

That's greater than Bitcoin's energy usage.

Since gold mining is so much more harmful to the environment, maybe we should outlaw that first before we work on smaller problems.

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by selfhoster11 on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @06:40AM (#27206793)
> That's greater than Bitcoin's energy usage.

For now. Gold's been around for centuries, Bitcoin not even for two decades. It's got a momentum that Bitcoin may or may not match in the future.

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by WorldMaker on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @02:21PM (#27212400)
> How is comparing Bitcoin's energy usage with other endeavors an "order of magnitude fallacy"?

The "other endeavors" category above was "digital endeavours" and specifically "Bitcoin versus Facebook", which is an order of magnitude difference.

You've introduced an entirely different category from the above discussion. It's maybe an interesting category [1] to discuss elsewhere, but is off topic from the fallacy we were discussing. Thanks for the non-sequitur, though.

[1] Personally, I'm not so sure it's a useful counter-comparison to Bitcoin: Gold is used in electronics and other industrial needs, beyond its service as a value store/commodity of interest to collectors. Gold is also increasingly rarely the "primary" focus of mines. Most of our Gold today comes from Copper mines and very few would argue we are mining Copper as a value store/solely for greed.

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by panarky on Thursday May 20, 2021 @01:20AM (#27217683)
> Why do HN comment threads always end up as Pedantry Pageants where all ye who dare comment must address all the fucking edge cases

Gold mining isn't a fucking edge case if it uses more energy and produces far more environmental damage.

According to the principle you described, Bitcoin is the edge case we should ignore until we solve the gold mining problem.

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by WorldMaker on Thursday May 20, 2021 @12:37PM (#27223430)
Gold mining isn't even an edge case in that specific example when the class of problem is explicitly defined as "What digital services use too much energy?" as it had been in the above conversation. Is Gold a digital service? No. Is Gold Mining wasteful? Perhaps. (Though again, as an aside, the better question with specific respect to Gold is: Is Copper Mining wasteful? Most gold is mined as a by product of copper mining.)

It's not an edge case of the "electric waste of Digital Services", because it is an entirely different problem. So not only do we have "pedantry pageants" of edge cases, but we get to address the "pedantry pageants" of all the unrelated but seemingly related problems too?

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by StandardFuture on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @04:22AM (#27205921)
> Gold mining uses something like 140 terawatt-hours of energy annually, and produces enormous pollution and environmental destruction in addition to that.

The most apropos commentary in this entire thread yet.

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by gverrilla on Thursday May 20, 2021 @05:29AM (#27219140)
not to mention human exploitation and harsh working conditions, particularly on illegal gold mines
Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by beaner on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @01:45PM (#27198324)
> why can't we discuss the bigger problem first without getting into the weeds of all the smaller problems?

People seem to be intentionally conflating some things. A carbon tax is nice precisely because it avoids getting into weeds and is a general approach that applies equally to everything. Some people are proposing this and others are saying "don't get caught up in the weeds." What? Makes no sense. It just reinforces the poster's point: that some people's real motivation doesn't seem to be environmental, there's a strange focus on crypto specifically that makes it seem like they want it to be reigned in for other reasons.

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by WorldMaker on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @02:22PM (#27198864)
General solutions are great, but when there's a noticeable log_10 distinction between two examples given, why can't we start at dealing with specific solutions to the biggest problem first and worry about the general approach later? It's a 99%/1% problem: we'd potentially get a huge savings if we dealt with the 99% of cases first and worried about the 1% later.

The raw statistics already tell a story that the difference between "BTC" and "Facebook" is greatly exponential. Wanting to focus first on the (much) bigger exponent isn't necessarily a sign that people's real motivation is "conspiratorial" against crypto.

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by beaner on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @03:28PM (#27199808)
Because an outright ban is misguided anyway. PoW systems incentivize renewable R&D and investment. If you just straight-up make it illegal, you kill a major driving force of change for the better. If you restrict carbon output instead, you just further challenge the industry to find a way to work inside those bounds, allowing creativity and positive externalities to continue to develop.
Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by WorldMaker on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @04:03PM (#27200287)
There was an article just the other day of a coal plant that was entirely restarted for PoW coin mining. PoW systems are not proven to incentivize renewable energy R&D and investment. There's no proven link there. There's no proof that a PoW coin ban would "kill a major driving force of change for the better". Sure, a restriction on carbon output would be such a driving force, but there is no such restriction today and it is wishful thinking to believe that PoW miners are following anything like one in a market where such externalities continue to be unregulated.

It is orthogonal to the issue at hand that PoW is using far too much energy per transaction/per capita/per GDP/per most metrics you want to point to. Not using the energy in the first place is always going to be greener, no matter how much PoW systems invest in renewables and their R&D! I can't see that as "misguided". An outright ban would get immediate results versus a carbon output tax would incentivize eventual results, maybe. That's not misguided, that's just a different perspective, and a different preference on an ideal time window to address the situation versus wishful thinking and "golly gee, sure hope the market eventually figures it out someday".

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by josh2600 on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @01:32PM (#27198150)
https://orionmagazine.org/article/forget-shorter-showers/ << This is the seminal essay on this subject, IMHO.
Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by cwkoss on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @01:45PM (#27198316)
What is a fair method for determining the amount of acceptable energy for a cryptocurrency or a social network to use?

It seems like you implicitly draw the 'fair' line between FB and BTC.

BTC's market cap is roughly equal to Facebooks. If a POW coin used facebook levels of energy at the same value, would you find that acceptable?

Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by WorldMaker on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @02:16PM (#27198784)
I'm not setting any line here. I'm saying that we could worry about the big problem first without immediately deciding where any "line" needs to be drawn. I'm saying it doesn't matter which side of the "line" Facebook falls on because we could start with the biggest problems first, then circle back to Facebook when it's top of the list (not a whopping log_10 of at least 2 (!) difference from the current worst offenders, such as BTC).
Re:Ethereum will use around 99.95% less energy post merge by gverrilla on Thursday May 20, 2021 @06:01AM (#27219297)
I don't get why anglophones are so obsessed with these "drawing lines" and "moving posts", particularly on recent years. What lines are these exactly? What posts? This is very bad heuristics, actually.