If the chance of it happening is that small, isn't it fair to also consider the probability that we live in a universe without objective reality and/or where a god or gods intentionally interfere with random occurrences such as RNG outputs?
I would put this at better than 1/10^22. If you claimed that your religion was real and showed me an incontrovertible 'miracle' which had a chance of less than 1/10^20 of occurring by chance, I think I would accept your claim.
Re:How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
by konschubert on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @03:27AM
(#27192071)
Maybe there is yet-unknown physics/gods that show up in minecraft speedruns. Maybe he cheated.
We all have our own priors, I guess, but personally, I consider one of those to be more likely :D
The video discusses this and tries to provide their own intuition besides the two papers, as both agree on the core odds of the likelyhood being around 2 x 10^22. They contrast this with the number of events if 10 billion (10^10) humans would do something for 1 century (10^2) every second (~3.15 x 10^7): ~3.15 * 10^19. So the odds of the event happening if more humans than we have today do it every second for a century is roughly 1 in 1000.
Lastly, they postulate it doesn't matter if they cheated, but the sheer unlikeliness shows that the minecraft run is not performing up to expectations.