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Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by chmod600 on Sunday May 16, 2021 @07:23PM (#27178193)
The closing of schools in California (vs open in Florida since last fall) was a very distinct difference in both policy and actual behavior. It seems not to have had a dramatic effect on outcomes.

At least in hindsight, the closing of schools might have been a huge mistake.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by auxym on Sunday May 16, 2021 @07:26PM (#27178219)
Some canadian provinces are still closing down schools at the moment.
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by chmod600 on Sunday May 16, 2021 @07:27PM (#27178230)
Why? Sincere question. Is there science to back it up or is it just fear of making a wrong decision?
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by auxym on Sunday May 16, 2021 @07:52PM (#27178443)
Sincerely, I don't know. Almost all of the at risk population here has had at least a first shot. But the situation in Ontario has been pretty bad the past few weeks.

But I don't follow the science closely enough. I hope they're making the right call, because it's really hard on the kids. I'm just glad my own little guy is not of school age yet, and in fact is young enough to be mostly oblivious to the whole thing.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Sunday May 16, 2021 @09:01PM (#27178911)
Conveniently skipping over the occupied ICUs. How do you not know that our medical system was overwhelmed or that the rise in cases only reversed after we shut down schools both times in the last 4 months?
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by ceejayoz on Sunday May 16, 2021 @09:21PM (#27179073)
Surely that wasn’t the only tightened restriction or change in behavior during the case surge, though?

There are a lot of confounding variables in these analyses. It’s going to take years to tease them apart, and we may never truly know for certain in some cases.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Sunday May 16, 2021 @09:29PM (#27179136)
Perhaps, but do you lock everything down mid-spike when you know the current rate will lead to extreme triage measures within two weeks, or do you wait two weeks to act and start rejecting patients as they continue to flood in?
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by ceejayoz on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:13PM (#27179409)
"the rise in cases only reversed after we shut down schools both times" implies a causal relationship, though, while ignoring the other mitigations that went into effect.

The point is not "is it wise to take precautions"; that's obvious. The point is we don't necessarily have great data on which precautions work better than others because they're largely all being put into effect at the same time.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:25PM (#27179487)
> point is we don't necessarily have great data on which precautions work better than others

We actually do, though, and it's preventing close contact of non-household members and preventing sharing enclosed spaces with non-household members for long periods of time.

People spread the virus before they even know they're sick, and a subset of sick people either need to go to work despite being sick, or they just don't care.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by ceejayoz on Monday May 17, 2021 @02:57PM (#27186889)
Again, all those restrictions were typically implemented at the same time - distancing, capacity limits, masking, etc.

It's going to take time and years of research to tease out things like "did closing schools specifically help".

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by auxym on Sunday May 16, 2021 @09:58PM (#27179315)
I just haven't been following the news that closely, especially for Ontario (I'm not in ON). No intent to "conveniently" hide information, though thanks for clarifying.
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Sunday May 16, 2021 @08:58PM (#27178893)
I don’t know why no one is saying this, but Ontario’s ICU numbers skyrocketed to 900 at the peak just a few weeks ago. We’re only down to 700 occupied beds now and normal medical procedures are still paused because of the enormous ICU load.

It wasn’t until we closed schools that the trend reversed.

People are so quick to blame fear without actually looking at the data

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by bitcurious on Sunday May 16, 2021 @09:48PM (#27179249)
> It wasn’t until we closed schools that the trend reversed.

The other way to think about it is that it wasn’t until things got bad that people got cautious.

Kind of how people take homeopathic drugs when they are sickest.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by chmod600 on Sunday May 16, 2021 @09:24PM (#27179106)
Is the data conclusive? I try to look at the data, but it seems like a mixed bag when it comes to school closures.
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:20PM (#27179463)
I don't know if we can conclusively say what specific action needs to be taken other than halt contact. We were on an extremely bad path, and I don't know what else could have been done since we had little vaccine supply at that time.
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by Spooky23 on Sunday May 16, 2021 @07:46PM (#27178405)
They have vaccine shortages. The issue is the teachers, not the kids.
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by chmod600 on Sunday May 16, 2021 @07:55PM (#27178458)
Are schools a major source of transmission for teachers and staff?
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by Spooky23 on Sunday May 16, 2021 @08:03PM (#27178518)
Yes. Workplaces with lots of contact always are.

In Nov-Feb, I was losing 40-60 employees a week to infection or quarantine. Mostly people in essential IT support positions

My sons school was open most of the year, but shutdown for a month due to teacher quarantines.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by sam_4675 on Sunday May 16, 2021 @08:44PM (#27178796)
Schools are different than a business setting. Young children have less chance of getting it and less of spreading it. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/pediatric-hcp....
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:18PM (#27179440)
You just contradicted the website you linked, I'm confused.

> Hospitalization rates in children are significantly lower than hospitalization rates in adults with COVID-19, suggesting that children may have less severe illness from COVID-19 compared to adults.

Less severe response to it, not "less chance of getting it." And then just two lines later:

> Recent evidence suggests that compared to adults, children likely have similar viral loads in their nasopharynx,7 similar secondary infections rates, and can spread the virus to others

I don't know how you arrived at your opinion here.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by Spooky23 on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:09PM (#27179386)
The population of humans in schools includes many adults.
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Sunday May 16, 2021 @09:07PM (#27178964)
Yeah because it appears to have helped reverse cases both in January and this month.
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by hervature on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:00PM (#27179332)
You mean cases started to drop after everyone stopped traveling for Christmas and vaccines started to hit meaningful numbers?
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:37PM (#27179555)
Who knows. The alternative was not closing schools while cases were increasing exponentially. Is that a theory we should be testing when we've already paused elective medical procedures due to the wave of COVID patients?
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by chmod600 on Monday May 17, 2021 @01:37AM (#27180369)
I said "in hindsight", meaning that we don't fault the decisions at the time. I think now is when we begin (without blame) to start evaluating what worked and what didn't.

Unfortunately, some of the things done were disruptive, and if they were also ineffective, that will lead to blame. But our mission should be honesty first, and have faith that reasonable people can accept that the best decisions were taken with the information available at the time.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by nradov on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:15PM (#27179419)
Did it actually help, or was that just coincidental?
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:36PM (#27179550)
The alternative was not closing schools while cases and incoming patients were increasing exponentially. Is that a theory we should be testing when we've already paused elective medical procedures due to the already high numbers of people in the hospital?
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by nradov on Sunday May 16, 2021 @11:38PM (#27179850)
Education is essential so yes that is a hypothesis we should be testing.
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Monday May 17, 2021 @01:21AM (#27180297)
I'm not sure you understand the consequences of an overwhelmed medical system.

Regardless, school is being done online. Kids that needed laptops got them.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by hervature on Monday May 17, 2021 @03:02PM (#27186974)
> Regardless, school is being done online. Kids that needed laptops got them.

Right, I forgot University of Phoenix regularly matches their in-person counterparts in terms of quality. Keep telling yourself that teachers who were never trained to do remote teaching are anywhere near the same effectiveness as before. You ever dissect something virtually? Somethings can simply not be learned through a screen. Physical education, dealing when your crush looks at you in the eye, literally anything "hands-on" like swinging a hammer at a nail, the of useful skills that can only be developed in the presence of another human are tremendous. Funnily, most of the useful things learned at school for most people are not the curriculum and it is these things that are missing.

Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by raydev on Monday May 17, 2021 @05:00PM (#27188381)
We can have this discussion if the situation carries on through this year. I agree a lot of places have had suboptimal schooling, some better than others, but I'd rather save lives and hold off on dissecting animals for a year.
Re:There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the... by briandear on Sunday May 16, 2021 @08:19PM (#27178652)
It was a huge mistake in foresight as well. Many of us were highly vocal against school closings.