News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman (2015). Parent comment

Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ... by rfrey on Sunday May 09, 2021 @12:07AM (#27093141)
The trick is that the host does not pick a door to open at random... If they did there would be a 1/3 probability they opened your door. If they didn't open yours under that circumstance, there would be a 50/50 chance you already picked the good door.

But it's not random... Monty will never open the door you chose. That's what messes up the intuitive probabilities.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ... by billforsternz on Sunday May 09, 2021 @12:53AM (#27093321)
Not only will he not open the door you choose, he won't open the door in front of the car either. I think that's the key point that confuses people. He knows where the car is and he always exposes a goat instead.
[ Parent | on HN ]