Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ...
by lamontcg on Saturday May 08, 2021 @11:11PM
(#27092887)
Look at it from actual door, first guess door pairs -- which are the random uncorrelated events:
1,1 - switch loses (host may have shown door #2 or #3)
1,2 - switch wins (host showed door #3)
1,3 - switch wins (host showed door #2)
2,1 - switch wins (host showed door #3)
2,2 - switch loses (host may have shown door #1 or #3)
2,3 - switch wins (host showed door #1)
3,1 - switch wins (host showed door #2)
3,2 - switch wins (host showed door #1)
3,3 - switch loses (host may have shown door #1 or #2)
The choice of which door to show you is not a random event and is highly dependent upon the events which preceded it, because the host cannot show you the door it is actually behind, or the door that you picked.
1,1 - switch loses (host may have shown door #2 or #3)
1,2 - switch wins (host showed door #3)
1,3 - switch wins (host showed door #2)
2,1 - switch wins (host showed door #3)
2,2 - switch loses (host may have shown door #1 or #3)
2,3 - switch wins (host showed door #1)
3,1 - switch wins (host showed door #2)
3,2 - switch wins (host showed door #1)
3,3 - switch loses (host may have shown door #1 or #2)
The choice of which door to show you is not a random event and is highly dependent upon the events which preceded it, because the host cannot show you the door it is actually behind, or the door that you picked.