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Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by nullc on Saturday May 01, 2021 @03:41PM (#27009173)
It's really important that manufacturers start responding to cryptocurrency induced shortages with auctions.

The demand from the cryptocurrency users will be extremely high until they've spent a particular amount in total. They can do that with 1000 units, or with 5000 units.

Obviously auctioning off units would be bad for having predictable prices for retail customers but that is irrelevant if aggressive miner buying is buying up all the supply.

Moreover, shareholders at the manufacturers should be demanding it: they're leaving money on the table.

Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by AlexandrB on Saturday May 01, 2021 @04:06PM (#27009336)
This sounds great. Hard drive prices will start increasing until building a computer is prohibitively expensive unless you're a large scale OEM that can make bulk contracts. Another example of cryptocurrency empowering individuals.
Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by fpgaminer on Saturday May 01, 2021 @06:51PM (#27010614)
1) Nvidia et al. have to work with Big Retail (tm) [i.e. Walmart, Target, Best Buy]. Big Retail isn't interested in doing auctions. They function off the tried and true MSRP model. No matter how much money is being left on the table. This applies just as much to GPUs and hard drives as it does to the recent console shortages.

I've worked with Big Retail execs before. They're old school and conservative (in the business sense).

In a smoke filled CES hotel room they shook hands on a deal of X for $Y, and that's how it's going to stay for the next decade.

2) Risk. These shortages and cryptocurrency demand spikes are a blip on the history of these companies. It'd be stupid to suddenly change their entire business models and retail relationships for something that could disappear next month.

As much as I believe cryptocurrency and hence mining is here to stay, I can't fault these companies for not believing the same and acting accordingly. Especially given the cycles of boom and bust that cryptocurrencies have gone through.

Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by dannyw on Sunday May 02, 2021 @03:11AM (#27012990)
Miner demand for cards alone exceed all big retail sales. Sorry, but Walmart, Target and Best Buy can be made irrelevant now.
Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by hdhrnnrkrkf on Saturday May 01, 2021 @03:52PM (#27009255)
Burning your regular customers is terrible business practice. It's not always about the money.

Also, remember when Martin Shkreli increased the price of an anti-parasitic drug by 5000%? That upset a lot of people, and arguably it's what put him in jail. Of course, HDDs are not quite the same as vital medicine.

Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by orev on Saturday May 01, 2021 @05:03PM (#27009781)
An auction is not an arbitrary increase just because you can. It’s the exact opposite- a natural market where supply and demand reach the optimal price.

Yeah it’s bad for regular customers, but if there’s no supply then what would they be able to get anyway?

Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by nine_k on Saturday May 01, 2021 @07:08PM (#27010746)
Regular customers usually have long-term contracts and preferential treatment. Nobody in their right mind is going to show them the middle finger.

But for them, availability will also be limited, and next-term prices will get higher.

Also, increasing production of a highly-demanded item is not unheard of! But it will take months.

Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by IAmGraydon on Saturday May 01, 2021 @05:06PM (#27009808)
This is asinine. You would be making the product only available to those who can turn the highest profit from it and would lose the rest of your customer base to your competitor who is smart enough to not use an auction model. The entire cash flow would come from one narrow sector which would eventually collapse, leaving you with no customers. Business models evolve toward efficiency, and there is a good reason no one is doing this.
Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by gruez on Saturday May 01, 2021 @05:31PM (#27010043)
>You would be making the product only available to those who can turn the highest profit from it and would lose the rest of your customer base to your competitor who is smart enough to not use an auction model

Auction sucks because it drives the price of goods up, but you know what's worse than prices going up? Prices going to infinity because they're out of stock.

Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by the8472 on Saturday May 01, 2021 @05:19PM (#27009943)
That sounds like a one-shot model. Auctions for mass-produced goods would be per batch. Nullc's argument is that driving up the price of auctions would exhaust whatever cash pile the miners are sitting on faster, which means they would gobble up fewer harddrives than they will if the prices are kept low.
Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by nullc on Sunday May 02, 2021 @03:13AM (#27013003)
::sigh::

The alternative is that the product is completely unavailable. This is currently the situation across a broad swath of GPUs. Every unit that becomes available is instantly snatched up, in some cases by people who've bribed the people doing stocking at the distributors.

That is asinine. Yes, auctioning the limited supply off is also obnoxious but it is a strictly no worse than being entirely unavailable. Auctioning it of also has the benefit of depleting the uncontrolled demand faster (which is often taking the form of 'buy $x million in parts, however much we can get'). It potentially helps expand the supply (though unfortunately lead times and tooling make it hard to expand supply for surge loads), and for some cases where paying an astronomical price would be justified it would preserve some access to the product.

But the main motivation for my suggestion is to deplete the resource of the parties buying 100% of the stock as quickly as possibly so that the market can get back to normal. If that doesn't work it's because the money fountain is simply too large, and at some point the increased revenue will justify increasing the supply (even though doing so is risky).

> Business models evolve toward efficiency, and there is a good reason no one is doing this.

Sorry, but that isn't how 'evolve towards' works. Sure, eventually. But this kind of demand is unusual and surprising, it presents new challenges. There may be good reasons why what I suggest wouldn't be a good idea but those reasons are not "if this were a good idea they'd already be doing it".

Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by dehrmann on Saturday May 01, 2021 @06:05PM (#27010308)
You realize capitalism is a system for allocating scare goods, right? An auction model means manufacturers benefit directly, and unless they're in a cartel, the high prices incentivize them to increase production. We see this happen all the time in the oil marker with marginal producers entering and exiting the market. Without an auction, anyone lucky enough to win the HDD lottery will have the same incentive, only they'll sell it on ebay.
Re:Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider by noogle on Saturday May 08, 2021 @07:36PM (#27091803)
The problem is the network effect. With GPUs, substantial effort has been done to build products and tools on top of Nvidia's proprietary framework (CUDA). The community invested in a proprietary system under the understanding that Nvidia will supply the hardware and not monopolize this investment.

Should the community have divested from Nvidia's proprietary format and spread its resources on multiple platforms? Concentrating effort can benefit everyone, but it requires trust.

In addition, part of this community investment was funded by government research grants, adding a legal/public policy aspect to the issue. Should taxpayer money be spent on creating private, abusive, monopolies?