Re:Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
by oblio on Friday April 30, 2021 @04:29AM
(#26991030)
This model greatly depends on the rate of actual infection.
Assuming a perfectly oblivious population, for example, where there are absolutely no protective measures in place† and people just act 100% as usual††, then the infection rate would have skyrocketed in a very short time and the death rate would have been much, much higher because of the healthcare system completely collapsing. You'd have people dying from tetanus because nobody would have been available to give them shots. People dying from easily stoppable bleeding, etc. So in this extreme case I think the total death rate caused by the pandemic could have easily been in the low millions.
† Self distancing, masks, etc.
†† Which would be quite irrational and hasn't actually happened even in places which otherwise ignored the pandemic: a certain percentage of the population self-isolated due to the survival instinct.
Assuming a perfectly oblivious population, for example, where there are absolutely no protective measures in place† and people just act 100% as usual††, then the infection rate would have skyrocketed in a very short time and the death rate would have been much, much higher because of the healthcare system completely collapsing. You'd have people dying from tetanus because nobody would have been available to give them shots. People dying from easily stoppable bleeding, etc. So in this extreme case I think the total death rate caused by the pandemic could have easily been in the low millions.
† Self distancing, masks, etc.
†† Which would be quite irrational and hasn't actually happened even in places which otherwise ignored the pandemic: a certain percentage of the population self-isolated due to the survival instinct.