1. I'm skeptical as the age of retirement keeps going up. Have a source? 2. Agreed that's an issue in contexts with low rule of law but I think that's less of an issue here than say Ukraine/Russia/DRC where there is serious smuggling

My argument is too simple to need sources:

Assume that, on average, smokers die at 75, non smokers die at 80, and everyone gets social security pensions at 65.

Then smokers pensions only cost 67% of non smokers pension, even though they pay in 100% as much.

My numbers are surely wrong, but all that matters is that smokers die earlier than non smokers.

This is also the hard to realize way Social Security redistributes from the poor and unhealthy to the well off and healthy.

So does life expectancy. You retire later, but in total amount of years retired per person? Probably even more today still? I don't think "standard retirement age" tracks perfectly with life expectancy.

Also consider. The life expectancy of a 60 year old is above average. At age 60 you have already "survived" quite a lot of danger (adolescent drug abuse, driving accidents while young, opportunity to be a soldier in a war, crimes of passion in your twenties, mid life crisis, et cetera). So the life expectancy of a 60 year old is above the "average life expectancy", as many die before ever reaching that age.

Isn't economics fun?

Doesn't banning something also give you smuggling and illegal dealing? Like currently all drugs and back when alcohol was illegal?

It does. You can think of a ban as an infinite tax.