When I first saw this going around before seeing it on here, my first thought that it's still a bad take because how else are you form your inference without data collection? You're not just going to be given your conditional probability; you're almost certainly going to have to go out to collect the data to construct this (and the data collection being the regulatory item covered).

I think that the hot take machines that are twitter/online communities have a certain amount of mindrot where poorly researched topics make headline news concerns me (which tbf is in itself a hot take I suppose).