Are those EVs that are going to become decent sub $20k buys at say 5 years old even in existence yet? Even if they are there aren’t enough of them being sold new yet.

I seems to me probably another 5 years to get enough volume in solid lower end EVs that are bought in quantity and have a decent lifespan. Then another 5 years for them to filter down to the used market with decent prices.

I bought a 2017 Golf last year for around $15k. In Australia the only thing you can get electric wise at that price point would be a 2013 or so leaf with 100km range, and even then there is basically no supply.

Not in the "no compromise" Tesla class, no. The vehicles are too new and too in-demand and are holding their value too well in the used market to depreciate enough. That's a good thing, it means the market is growing and manufacturers have incentive to produce more cars.

You can get a ~2016 Leaf for around $10k though.

Indeed. These EVs will filter down to the used market over time, satiating demand from those not of means to afford a new car.

It's ideal really; those who can buy new eat the depreciation, while those who can't afford new end up with a vehicle that will be able to go hundreds of thousands of miles before end of service life (perhaps with some cosmetic blemishes, but not much more of concern considering powertrain longevity). Not everyone needs a new car, many simply need a reliable car.

We sort of know what to expect with powertrain longevity on used vehicles, but I'm not sure we know the same for electric vehicles just yet.

Consider: I had my last car purchase (which I knew would be used) between a BMW 4 Series, a VW Golf R, and a Subaru STI. I went with the 4 Series. The Golf R and STI are often used as track cars, and 40k miles on a Golf R may very well be the equivalent of 100k miles on a regular Golf.

I admit this is a very specific use case, but there are other specific use cases (e.g. police car - probably spent 80% of its engine's life idling and not racking up miles) that we know to look for, that we simply don't know to look for in the EV market, because they haven't presented themselves yet.

It's really just "battery" longevity. The EV-unique part of the power train on most of these vehicles is a single-gear electric motor with one moving part. There are broadly similar devices in service today that have been working more or less unmaintained for literally a century (think elevator motors in old apartment buildings, etc...). It's pretty well travelled territory.

But yes: batteries age and need to be replaced. But while that's quite expensive in materials, it's actually very feasible as a maintenance task. A 2012 Model S could have its battery swapped and no doubt drive for another decade with minimal fuss.

The "small" market for new sub-$20k vehicles includes: the Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Mazda 3, Nissan Sentra, Hyundai Kona, and Kia Soul, depending on options. Sometimes you can get a new base Civic for just under $20k. All of these are very popular cars. Basically the entire subcompact car or crossover segments (non-luxury), and most of the compact car segment (depending on options).

Of that list, only the Soul has a starting MSRP under $20k I believe, the others all have $20k as a floor. And I'm not saying that no one buys those cars, just that the market isn't large and that most new cars are significantly more expensive. This link puts the average (I couldn't find a median) at $41k, for example: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2021/01/07/new-car...

So a bunch of EV's sitting 20-30% above that level aren't being priced out of the range of popular cars. They're very feasible purchases for most buyers.

All those cars sell for well under $20k after discounts and rebates. MSRP != average transaction price: you need to check the KBB value (and some of them also have an MSRP under $20k, like the Hyundai Elantra, Nissan Sentra, and most of the subcompact crossover segment).

I understand how car pricing works. Nitpicking about the threshold isn't the point. Cheap new cars are a real, but small part of the total market. EVs don't compete there well now, but that says basically nothing about the ability of EVs to penetrate the broader market.