> Suicidal ideation is up,

How could we possibly know this? Reports of suicidal ideation is up, would be a more honest claim.

Increased reporting of/willingness to report ideation and reduced rate of suicide might both be explained by people accessing mental health support.

I don't have a particularly strong preconception. It seems plausible to me that suicides would increase, but the world is a complex place and I can think of a number of factors that would have led to a decline. In general, economic declines are usually associated with decreased mortality.

It's an interesting question and something to explore. I don't think the relationship between suicidal ideation and successful suicides is strictly linear, there are a lot of variables on the path from one to the other.

That said, I think the evidence is relatively strong for a decline in successful suicide, for whatever reason. Multiple comparative studies have shown this effect.

I'm curious - have you seen a nation-wide comparative/longitudinal study of suicidal ideation? All I can find are news reports about a specific hospital or two.

Unfortunately, no. There seems to be a lack of general population-based longitudinal studies on suicide and suicidal ideation. Most studies take place in the US or Europe, and almost all seem to be focused on particular subgroups like teenagers and young adults; combat veterans; or homeless people. This makes some sense, because one would expect people in these groups to have a higher risk of suicide than the general population. And, indeed, it is true, at least for teenagers and combat veterans; I'm not sure about homeless people.

Maybe someone more familiar with this area knows of something, but I haven't seen it.