It seems like equities do not (long term) perform well relative to currency in inflationary markets because companies' costs also rise. Apple, e.g. would be spending more per unit iPhone and would eat margin or require a price increase, which leads to fewer sales etc.

There are exceptions, like energy companies, for example. IIRC Exxon went up in the 1970s while the market as a whole stayed flat and lost value relative to the USD.

At the extreme, in the Weimar republic, the stock market did what the US is doing today... until the stocks flatlined relative to the currency[1].

[1] - Haven't read it but sources that claim this point to this book (I just bought it though, it's only $3): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/8567383-when-money-dies

Thanks for the link, looking forward to reading it. I agree, I think we will see SPY do just fine for the next few years. Then, it won't be fine.

It’s too much risk. It may work out, but unless you know something the rest don’t, it is just gambling.

I understand how it can look that way. But from my perspective, being long USD is a much more dangerous gamble. I'm young and have a high risk tolerance, we will see.

Choosing to allocate most of your net worth in, e.g. cash, is a gamble too.

Holding cash is worse than a gamble, it’s a guaranteed loss.