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Re:India’s second wave by mrow84 on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @07:03AM (#26887902)
Deaths are clearly exponentially increasing:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Re:India’s second wave by christophilus on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @02:51PM (#26893901)
Am I reading that correctly? The exponential spike represents approximately 1.5 deaths in a million?
Re:India’s second wave by mrow84 on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @04:52PM (#26895288)
Correct, 2,023 people on the 20th April.
Re:India’s second wave by collyw on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @10:40AM (#26890261)
It's following a gompertz curve like every other country.
Re:India’s second wave by mrow84 on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @05:26PM (#26895642)
The progression of deaths [0] is patently nothing like a Gompertz curve. It is bounded, of course, which is probably your point, but we are currently in a growth phase that is well modelled by an exponential curve. The Gompertz adds nothing at this stage, and does not accurately represent the periods of slowing that have already been experienced, nor the subsequent accelerations.

That the population is finite is, I think we can all agree, well understood. It is, however, important to be clear about the dangers of exponential disease growth when only ~1% of a population currently has that disease and the CFR is ~1%. For any sizeable fraction of 1.3 billion that translates to a large number of people.

[0] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...