Re:Kelly Criterion
by seoaeu on Friday April 16, 2021 @01:56PM
(#26837091)
Even worse, the experimenters didn't actually provide real coins. They just sent around links to a website that they said was simulating a biased coin. Participants presumably had no actual way to know whether the flips were actually 60% biased towards heads, whether the results were truly independent from one flip to the next, or even whether their bet might impact the outcome.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Re:Kelly Criterion
by dragonwriter on Friday April 16, 2021 @03:55PM
(#26838403)
All those sources of uncertainty of the actual probabilities are, while in some cases not typical of a real coin (although uncertainty about actual bias one has been informed of certainly is), fairly typical all of real-world situations in which people face, so I’m not at all certain that that invalidates any application of the results to real-world situations.