Re:Kelly Criterion
by quickthrowman on Friday April 16, 2021 @12:26PM
(#26835900)
Previous tosses do not change the outcome of subsequent tosses, so no, it’s not more likely to be tails, it has a 60% chance of being heads.
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I understand, once 60% chance is established - then - that's what it is.
However, until such probability is established, if I see heads in a row - my intuition would tell me that the physics is skewed towards heads. I don't think that it would be unreasonable to think that in such circumstances until one gets a larger sample of throws.