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Re:Kelly Criterion by blowski on Friday April 16, 2021 @12:20PM (#26835838)
It says "a coin that would land heads 60% of the time". If it's already landed heads 60% of the time, I'd expect the remaining 40% for it to land on tails.
Re:Kelly Criterion by sokoloff on Friday April 16, 2021 @12:59PM (#26836376)
Thought experiment: in what way has it landed heads 60% of the time? It landed heads 100% of the trials so far, but the coin has no way of keeping track of that.
Re:Kelly Criterion by bscphil on Friday April 16, 2021 @12:46PM (#26836186)
That's not a guarantee for any number of flips. For example, if you only flipped the coin one time, what does "60% of the time" even mean in that context? As your other replies have indicated, this is getting at the long-run frequency, meaning as you flip the coin more and more times, approaching infinity, the number of heads approaches 60%.
Re:Kelly Criterion by antasvara on Friday April 16, 2021 @12:23PM (#26835872)
The key here is that it's expected to land heads 60% of the time. Take a normal coin, which is expected to land heads 50% of the time. If you flip a heads, do you instantly expect it to be tails next time? By your logic it would be impossible to ever flip heads twice in a row. Coins as a general rule aren't impacted by previous flips.