Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
by chrisco255 on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @11:50PM
(#26802749)
> roughly 10000 less likely at least
No source.
Also statistically unknowable at this point. But a 34 and under year old already has less than a 1 in 100K chance of dying from Covid. That is to say, an under 34 year old is more likely to die of murder than die of Covid. Anywhere from 4-10x more likely in the U.S. depending on the city.
https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_causes_of_dea...
Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
by necovek on Wednesday April 14, 2021 @02:48AM
(#26803782)
We never really exposed general population of under 34s to unmitigated coronavirus (perhaps March/April 2020 in USA or Sweden in 2020 is closest we got to it), but even that is uncontrolled for people deciding to reduce exposure to other people on their own.
"10000 less likely" was derived from 1 in 6 million compared to a global death rate of roughly 2%, then allowing for roughly an order of magnitude error: not scientific at all, I agree.
Taking your numbers as undisputable while not acknowledging that they are as uncertain as "the other side" is a bit dishonest in my opinion.
Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
by srj on Wednesday April 14, 2021 @09:31AM
(#26806811)
Accepting your stats here, but what about consequences other than death? A friend in their late 30s just had to relearn how to walk and was in a coma for weeks after getting COVID. Months later he still isn't able to work full time.
For example, you can't easily prove that your comment here is not causing me to develop a blood clot if I develop one.
Which is why we try to prove positives: who else has developed a blood clot after reading your comment? Is there any correlation? Anything to suggest there is causation too? What would be the hypothesis.
You are right that vaccines are not proven to be perfectly safe (and to be honest, none of them are even with longer testing time). But you are still muddying the waters by throwing these "prove a negative" statements.
The risk with coronavirus vaccines today is that the risks are not fully known (unlike with other, more established, vaccines for other diseases). Risks of getting coronavirus is also not fully established, though we know it can be pretty severe.
It would be only natural to expect some similar immune response from COVID and vaccines causing similar issues in the body, but that's totally hypothetical until proven to be the case.
Data so far points that it's much less likely for someone to develop issues from a vaccine than from COVID itself (roughly 10000 less likely at least), so it's up to the individual to assess if they are less likely to contract COVID and get serious symptoms, or get serious symptoms out of vaccination.