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Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by refurb on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @08:08AM (#26791083)
This is the thing. A similar issue was seen with heparin a decade or so back. Basically the heparin molecule (an impurity I believe) was causing an immune reaction that cross reacted with a protein that activates platelets. Not a minor side effect and until the full extent of the issue is known (who is at high risk? How do we treat if it happens) I don’t blame them for being cautious.
Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by mhb on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @08:33AM (#26791312)
Your sympathy for them being cautious begs the question of whether the vaccine, with its uncertainty, is worth using. The cost of waiting to use it is significant - people will die from COVID.

It's not enough to say you're being cautious. You have to explain why you think it is better to be cautious about administering the vaccine with its attendant risks or to pay the QALYs incurred by the delay when people who would have received this vaccine don't.

Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by toast0 on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @11:21AM (#26793463)
Pausing this one vaccine type to collect data and determine appropriate actions to mitigate this side effect is reasonable.

This is a low probability event, and the appropriate mitigation may be to do nothing; but there may be some common factor for these patients that might indicate use of a different vaccine or maybe informing people of symptoms of blood clots and what to do if they see symptoms.

The real risk here is eroding confidence in government health sources in general, and vaccines in specific. There were certainly unknown risks before, but now there is a known risk which deserves some study.

Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by mhb on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @12:33PM (#26794946)
That's all hand-waving. Why is it reasonable to delay vaccinating people based on these events? Maybe it is, but not because your gut feel says so.

What erodes confidence is the complete absence of cost/benefit discussions about virtually any decision that has been made. Including this one.

Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by toast0 on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @01:03PM (#26795426)
We've now got a known risk that's quantifiable, but hasn't been quantified. You can estimate the risk based on the current information, but now that it's a known risk, I would expect to have more complete information in a few weeks.

If this turns out to be about what it looks like now, unpause and go forward. If it turns out to be much more significant, all the better for having stopped; maybe restrict this vaccine to populations at higher risk of COVID or lower risk of blood clots (if that risk can be determined). Both mRNA vaccines and modified adenovirus vaccines are new types of vaccines not used before on a wide scale; pausing to get clarity on a major negative side effect is warranted.

Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by mhb on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @01:34PM (#26795963)
You've hinted at a framework for making a decision but left out an important component.

A credible decision would give your estimates of harm/benefit for delaying vaccinating people. You seem all too willing to ignore the people who will become sick or die because of delaying the vaccine. You are only looking at potential harm from not delaying the vaccine. Unfortunately, you have a lot of company.

Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by dragonwriter on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @03:18PM (#26797625)
> A credible decision would give your estimates of harm/benefit for delaying vaccinating people.

It seems to me that the delay imposed by a pause in use of the J&J vaccine to make sure healthcare providers are informed of and have appropriately updated diagnostic and treatment protocols is minor, its basically pulling forward by a few days the effects of the 80% week-over-week drop in J&J vaccine supply that was just in the news.

Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by toast0 on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @02:06PM (#26796525)
The risk isn't just the blood clots, it's that the vaccine is perceived as rushed (it was) and warning signs were ignored, so maybe other things were ignored.

Leading to more people delaying their vaccination. Supply is currently at a level that all doses available are administered, but to the extent lost confidence results in longer delay for high risk patients, that has a cost. When supply exceeds demand, lost confidence will have a cost for those low risk people who delay, as well as the general population which loses out on wider immunity. Delaying the vaccine now certainly also has some cost of the same type, but it's bounded. Another case of a vaccine campaign ignoring warning signs and proceeding without pausing to consider appropriate response to issues as they arise will affect this campaign as well as future campaigns.

Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by mhb on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @03:12PM (#26797525)
I don't think anyone would disagree that if there were no cost to delaying supplies of the vaccine then we should do that. But that's simply not credible. The governor of Michigan seems to think that additional vaccine does would be helpful.[1]

Suggesting that effects on the order of the ones seen here is a good reason to delay the vaccine should make people doubt the ability of our public health authorities to make reasonable tradeoffs.

[1] Michigan's Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer declared her state a "COVID hotspot" as cases continue to rise and has asked the federal government to increase vaccines in response. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cdc-director-michigan-vaccin...

Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by toast0 on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @03:33PM (#26797856)
Sure, maybe don't delay it in hotspots then. Or send my state's allocation of J&J to Michigan for the next couple weeks.
Re:US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine by abduhl on Tuesday April 13, 2021 @08:41AM (#26791395)
All of a sudden we need a QALY analysis to justify an immediate reaction from the government? Things sure have changed in the past couple hours when it comes to What people think is required of America’s COVID19 response.