That is why thinking purely in financial terms is misleading. It's not because everyone has more $$$ in the bank that everyone is better off.
The real issue is that tech/startup founders and workers who, while less rich, accumulate more wealth at scale compare to the rest of society. And given their number, I'm afraid this will have a real impact by greatly increasing inequality. That would be ok if the other part of the population would also be able to live better. But I do not think it will be the case.
Btw: I am a tech founder.
This isn't just relegated to billionaires. Depending on how you define "consumption", up to 70% of the U.S. economy is consumer driven. Now I wouldn't call all this "unproductive" but it's probably selectively unfair to claim only the uber-rich are spending money on items they don't need.
Google, Microsoft, Twitter, Netflix, etc., are enormously valued and none of it is based on bounded resources.
People made rich by Google will absolutely be able to redirect more resources to themselves in a world of bounded resources.
I think a lot of founders are idealistic about it and refuse to believe that at scale the start up mentality will increase inequalities. That's PG's point acutally, see the last sentence of his essay: it will. But he doesn't care. I do.
E.g., did Broadcast.com really create nearly $6B in value just because that's what it was speculatively valued at when purchased? I'd argue no, unless you think the "greater fool theory" is the correct way to measure value rather than intrinsic worth.
No, it can't. It can only be guessed at. Everybody knows that "book" value isn't terribly reliable.
> Value investors have in fact gotten rich
Here's a simple test for your theory. You're sure you're right. If so, you have invested in "undervalued" stocks and gotten rich. If you haven't invested based on your theory, are you sure you're right?
As for me, I invest my money where my mouth is.
I’d also avoid absolute terms like “everybody”, “always”, etc. because they’re easily falsifiable
But I do suggest caution. A strategy that works for 3 years may not play out well over 10, 20, 30 years.
Yeah, I know I wrote "everybody knows". I meant "it is generally known".
I got hammered really hard by the 2000 crash. Down something like 75%. I thought I was smart by not investing in bubble stocks. But the secondary die-off caught me. It was a bitter pill.