Around 1% of seed-funded companies go on to become unicorns (>1B valuation).

Total market value of unicorns ~$2T (~600 unicorns). So average unicorn valuation ~3.3B USD.

Let's say you're the founder and your [ultimately diluted] share of the company is 10%. You have a 10Y runway. Your EV in startup case is 330M (10% of 3.3B) * 1% chance of success = $3.3M or $330K USD per year. This is only counting the extreme (unicorn cases) and will obviously vary with equity percentages.

https://news.crunchbase.com/news/private-unicorn-board-now-a...

What percent of entrepreneurs create seed-funded companies?

$3.3m in NW is 100% beatable in FANG.

Sure - I agree; that was only the slice of the pie attributable to the extreme success (1%). There's also exits which are non-unicorn but non-trivial which probably bump that number up quite a bit.

It's a tricky problem in the general case because the skills that would allow you to capture a high compensation in FAANG probably correlate with the skills that would lead to a successful startup (not perfectly, but somewhat), so the better your options in FAANG the better your potential outcome via startup (with much higher variance).