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Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by lovedswain on Sunday April 11, 2021 @12:43PM (#26771642)
> _very_ competent cyber-actor

Please elaborate on this. As someone with direct exposure to this area and in this geography, my experience could not be described this way at all.

Let's not forget Iran's first "military satellite" was launched with an over the counter unencrypted amateur cubesat transponder manufactured by a Californian company

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by ajcp on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:23PM (#26771906)
Given when we're talking about nations states as cyber-actors we're working with a pool of ~190. Compared to 90% of the other nation-states out there Iran is a _very_ competent cyber-actor. Enough so that it may even export that capability. This still means there are ~20 that are more competent, if not _extremely_ so.

Given your exposure in this geography can you name any of it's neighbors who have greater or even equal competency that aren't Israel or don't use citizens from an _extremely_ competent nation-state? They certainly had their way with Aramco, so not Saudi Arabia. Egypt? Jordan? Syria? Iraq? Perhaps Lebanon? And this just their neighbors. What about compared to Portugal or Spain? South Africa? Nigeria? Argentina or Mexico?

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by lovedswain on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:38PM (#26772011)
> Compared to 90% of the other nation-states out there Iran is a _very_ competent cyber-actor.

.

> Given your exposure in this geography can you name any of it's neighbors

Saudi Arabia targetted at least Bezos' phone

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by tptacek on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:42PM (#26772042)
This is all pretty silly, isn't it? For the dollar figures involved in pulling off a highly-sophisticated attack (one that chains multiple zero days, including some in obscure products that imply the commissioning of vulnerabilities and not just their purchase off the black-market shelf as well as some in mainstream products with a real bidding interest), you're still talking about amounts of money so low that Cape Verde could be a _very_ competent cyber-actor if they wanted.
Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by lovedswain on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:55PM (#26772128)
Seems we're both triggered by this emphasis on "_very_", or even use of that word at all. Obviously Iran has a variety of technical capabilities, such as evidenced by their national firewall and internal infrastructure, but are there any documented offensive campaigns successfully mounted against a foreign target?

The only attacks I know of are low brow phishing, DoS and web site defacements.

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by tptacek on Sunday April 11, 2021 @02:06PM (#26772193)
Again, I think it's very silly to point at any country, and particularly a country as huge as Iran, and suggest that they're somehow limited to "low-brow phishing, DoS, and website defacements". Iran can pull a million dollars out of their couch cushions any time they want. Do you know how much offensive cyber capability 1MM buys? When it comes to the stuff we use on HN as a measure of sophistication, the answer is: a lot.

North Korea can't even feed its own people or keep the lights on in 2/3rds of the country. But nobody suggests they're unsophisticated cyber actors; that would be a demonstrably silly statement. Meanwhile: people routinely travel in and out of Iran; if you're not an American, it remains a major tourist destination. They have trade relationships around the world. They're not a hermit kingdom. If they want a world-class "APT" team, or 15 of them, all they have to do is decide to have them. (I assume they decided that a long time ago).

If you think Iran is unsophisticated or has minimal capabilities, I'd suggest you just look at a map, and, for bonus points, a GDP ranking, and consider that whatever evidence you personally may have collected on Iran's capabilities, you're seeing what they've allowed you to see.

Myself, I wouldn't even pick a fight with Kiribati.

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by petra on Sunday April 11, 2021 @07:41PM (#26774618)
So most countries can acquire a world class cybersecurity capabilities.

What's the difference between what they can do, and what the leading countries in cybersecurity (US, Israel) can do(offensively and defensively)?

Is there a significant difference?

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by tptacek on Sunday April 11, 2021 @08:17PM (#26774830)
It's a big open question. There likely are things that only the G7+N can accomplish; when you see cryptographic advances in implants and exploits, that's a good sign; hardware implants and deep OEM supply chain attacks are another. But nuts and bolts CNE? It's hard to say, and hard to say how much damage any country could do if motivated.

The other big question is how much this stuff applies to defense. The US presumably has better defensive capabilities than Iran could hope to have, by far. But better enough to matter? Open question.

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by ajcp on Sunday April 11, 2021 @09:49PM (#26775390)
Took quite a few decades, if not centuries, for defensive capabilities to gain parity with/negate offensive ones after the introduction of gunpowder. I think the approach to cybersecurity thus far has been to try and protect against the projectile, instead of the instrument from which it's deployed. Buckle up.
Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by drexlspivey on Sunday April 11, 2021 @09:08PM (#26775168)
Saudi Arabia bought the iphone exploit to hack Bezos from an Israeli company.

Fun fact, the text message with the malicious link was sent to Bezos by MBS himself

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by ajcp on Sunday April 11, 2021 @02:02PM (#26772164)
> Again what is this based on

~170 nations that don't have the capability. Just because a 14-year old in Thailand can mount an attack doesn't mean Thailand's government or civil institutions have or utilize that capability. That makes them less than _very_ competent at it.

> Saudi Arabia targetted at least Bezos' phone

And a coup that was, likely using off-the-shelf software from an Italian company composed of engineers from two _extremely_ competent nation-states. That certainly shows how easy it is to acquire the capability, if not the competency. The KSA has been doing it for years with it's armed forces munitions and equipment.

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by emodendroket on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:10PM (#26771815)
If citing a couple boneheaded moves like that mean they're not a competent actor, then who is? Consider: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nuclear-missile-code-00000000...
Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by kps on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:26PM (#26771928)
That wasn't incompetence, it was malicious compliance.
Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by kodah on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:37PM (#26772005)
In my mind, most countries can't figure out how to plan or coordinate a cyber-attack. With a limited pool of nations to pick from, even being able to coordinate an attack makes you relatively "very competent" (among your peers), however, that would also be a matter of perspective. It's equally valid to determine a criteria of competency and rank/describe countries based on those thresholds.
Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by LatteLazy on Sunday April 11, 2021 @04:59PM (#26773376)
I agree with your wider point but...

Launching a satellite means you can put a warhead anywhere on earth and no one can stop it. It's a achievement in rocketry, not whatever is on the end of the rocket. The actual satellite could be a crushed car for all anyone cares.

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by dfsegoat on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:05PM (#26771784)
I am not at all involved in security, but from my novice understanding, they appear somewhat competent.

Wiping of a US casino's IT infra in 2014:

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2014/12/irani...

Breaching of critical power/water infrastructure in 2015:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/hackers-infrastructure-1....

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by tedivm on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:20PM (#26771880)
What you see them doing isn't all that impressive. For the most part when you see these types of retaliatory attacks they look complicated but the reality is that they're fairly low tech.

For the casino hacks they brute forced some passwords and then wrote malware with Visual Basic to steal more credentials. The technical barriers there are fairly low. For the attacks on the water infrastructure they probably just scanned looking for open systems and ran off the shelf exploits on the ones that looked the most interesting.

Attacking in this way is a lot easier than attacking a specific target. If I just wanted to "hurt" a country from a PR perspective then there's a lot of attack surface, and you only need to get one or two things through to make the news. Targeting something like a secure nuclear facility is orders of magnitude more difficult.

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by Veserv on Sunday April 11, 2021 @04:07PM (#26772982)
Yes, what you observe them doing is not all that impressive, but that is all that is needed to attack these systems. There is no need to send a cruise missile when a light shove is enough.

Essentially every deployed system is so littered with security defects in every facet of both design and implementation that successful attacks against them can be developed and deployed at a cost of just a few tens of thousands to maybe a million dollars for a really good attack at the high end. Any reasonably-sized state actor can deploy literally thousands of times that many resources against their adversaries without even blinking and we know that the NSA and CIA were independently running hacking programs capable of attacking essentially every publicly deployed system in the world. Offense is so easy and defense is so bad it is ridiculous.

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by stunt on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:59PM (#26772152)
If you follow the cyberwarfare space, most of the powerful attacks are actually infowar, and social engineering, and human intelligence. It's not always as technical as Stuxnet (even Stuxnet wasn't possible without information operations and human intelligence). Intelligence Gathering and Cyber Intelligence are the most effective and powerful divisions.
Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by stunt on Sunday April 11, 2021 @01:38PM (#26772012)
Iran has been both victim and predator of several cyberwarfare operations. They clearly have the experience and they are spending a lot of resources for a long time.

A quick search about their operations:

- Shamoon malware was categorized as cyberwarfare and it was used against Saudi Aramco, allegedly by Iran.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shamoon

- A blackout in Turkey was also linked to Iran

https://observer.com/2015/04/iran-flexes-its-power-by-transp...

- Iran is also (allegedly) active in Information Warfare, which is much more complicated than technical cyber attacks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/russia-and-iran-tried-to-int...

- Israel and Iran are actively attacking each others infrastructure for a while.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/05/israel-and-iran-just-sh...

- Operation Newscaster. Cyber espionage and social engineering targeted senior U.S. military and diplomatic personnel, congresspeople, journalists, lobbyists, think tankers and defense contractors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Newscaster

- Operation Cleaver. targeted the military, oil and gas, energy and utilities, transportation, airlines, airports, hospitals and aerospace industries organizations worldwide.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cleaver

Re:Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility by 1cvmask on Sunday April 11, 2021 @05:21PM (#26773564)
The observer article on the blackout in Turkey caused allegedly by Iran is just an opinion piece and claims to be one.