> They will make bold forecasts from scanty data ‘more subsidies for domestic industry will reduce GDP growth’, ‘restricting access to Qualcomm chips will cripple Chinese Mobile Manufacturers’ and never validate their success rate. In general it requires a lot of critical reading to not get sucked into believing that they know what they’re talking about.

The Economist actually interestingly runs a forecasting competition that does just that. I expect you have to pay more for those intelligence reports.

https://www.gjopen.com/challenges