Why not both? China will gladly take advantage of the West being busy with Russia. Similarly, Russia will gladly take advantage of the West being busy with Taiwan.

If it's China, they could even decide to take over Tesla Shanghai, thereby crashing Tesla's stock price, and the S&P 500 index a week or two before.

They know the West is fighting on a thousand fronts right now - many of which are imaginary and unwinnable - so the more fronts that are open, the easier to win in the ones they care about.

If China wants to crash the world economy, they just need to dump their US debt. I don’t get what Tesla has to do with any of this, it’s a bit player in these games.

1/3rd of the Us debt is owned by foreign investors. Of that, I'd be surprised if China own more than 10%. I don't know how much power xi have over private chinese banks, and ho much the debt is diluted in funds, but if half is dumpable it would be interesting.

This much debt will be rolled anyway, and not waiting for debt maturity will cost china more than a supposed increased cost of interest rates.

They wouldn’t do what I speculated if they cared about interest rates. It would effectively be an act of war.

China is probably trying to wear down the US Navy and the Taiwanese Air Force by provoking those organizations into a higher pace of operations.

Russia-Ukraine has been ongoing for years. It's quite strange that people don't recognize that.

It can ramp up a lot still, but that won't be the start of anything. It definitely already started.