Multiply the first one probability of getting infected with COVID.

I don't have the table but the conclusion of the relevant authorities in the EU is basically that the risk of the vaccine-induced mortality is at least comparable to the risk of COVID19-mortality for younger women under 60 specifically. Norway saw an incidence vaccine induced serious side effects of 1:25k in younger women. It's unclear if the gender bias is due to the bias in the vaccinated group of HC workers.

Your local version of the CDC should have lots of numbers. I just had a quick look (at the Danish health department) and the numbers of reported side effects (all, not just adverse side effects) are approx. 1/36 in Pfizer and moderna and 1/7 AstraZeneca. That's.... quite the difference. Note this doesn't look at which group gets which vaccine etc. but only the reported numbers!

We have to be careful when comparing the raw numbers. The AstraZeneca vaccine is a vector vaccine and part of it's expected mechanism of action is triggering an (unpleasant) immune response. I'm not sure where the official definition draws the line between side effect and just normal unpleasantness, but I've heard that most people experience symptoms like a mild flu, and pain at the injection site. OTOH I've heard anecdotically that the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine has much less reactions.

Anyway I think we should not lump the mild/expected side effects and the serious and life threatening ones together. Unfortunately it's quite difficult to find reliable numbers for probability of e.g. blood clots after vaccine compared to the general population.

As a physicist, I'd also like to see the probability in the general population, but this population reweighted to match the population that has been given the vaccine. (E.g. if 0.1% of the population are nurses and 2% of the vaccinated are, then multiply their frequency by 20). When I just see a number, I never know how much they take this kind of confounding factors into account.