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Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by o-__-o on Monday March 29, 2021 @07:34PM (#26629651)
Modern a has been working on mRNA since 2010 and mRNA vaccines since 2012. They have the process down pretty solid, but vaccines do not bring in the bacon.
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by hcayless on Monday March 29, 2021 @09:44PM (#26630488)
The big money’s going to be in cancer treatments. If they can use this to target tumors, they’ll do quite well.
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by o-__-o on Monday March 29, 2021 @10:22PM (#26630675)
Bad news, it’s not looking very successful right now. Moderna is making back all the lost revenue with the emergency authorization tho
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by DrAwdeOccarim on Tuesday March 30, 2021 @06:16AM (#26632919)
Can you share some of the bad news links? I've only seen the positive ones.
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by azernik on Monday March 29, 2021 @07:50PM (#26629761)
Now that they've spent a year developing the mass-production methods and infrastructure, it might bring in the bacon! e.g. there's a steady annual market for a flu vaccine for whatever the latest strain is, and being able to get that to market faster than the competition could give them an edge.

I just don't think it was every profitable enough for them to put in this enormous capital expenditure.

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by dylan604 on Monday March 29, 2021 @07:52PM (#26629778)
When you can have Uncle Sam cover that capex, it makes it even more financially appealing.
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by justmedep on Tuesday March 30, 2021 @08:03AM (#26633597)
And Biontech since 2008 and CureVac was founded in 2000 (after their initial CEO made a discovery that enabled Biontech + Moderna).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingmar_Hoerr

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by hutzlibu on Monday March 29, 2021 @07:50PM (#26629762)
" but vaccines do not bring in the bacon."

As in, "do not generate enough income"? Really? Now?

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by retrac on Monday March 29, 2021 @08:32PM (#26630041)
Yes, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so. And worst of all, usually just one or two doses.

For all the horror HIV has wrought, global spending on vaccine development for HIV has been around $1 billion a year for the last few years. In contrast, the USA federal government spends $3 billion a year for HIV antiviral drugs for low-income Americans. $20,000 per patient per year for life. Unsurprisingly, new antivirals are where most of the research is.

It can sound almost like a conspiracy if I put it like that, but it's just the economics incentives. Especially since the developed countries where most of the market for charging a decent markup is, have the smallest market for most new vaccines, while having the largest markets for therapeutics for chronic conditions.

Now HIV is genuinely devillish to develop a vaccine for despite our attempts. But vaccines for hepatitis C, gonorrhea, HSV, among others appear to be possible. We almost certainly could develop effective vaccines for these with existing techniques, if someone coughed up the funding. Maybe all the buzz about mRNA vaccines will spur some progress here.

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by eeZah7Ux on Tuesday March 30, 2021 @07:50AM (#26633499)
> It can sound almost like a conspiracy if I put it like that, but it's just the economics incentives

Talk about market failures! It's completely obvious that this economical system is not placing the good of the whole human species as its first priority.

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by hutzlibu on Monday March 29, 2021 @08:57PM (#26630201)
"es, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so"

But since the demand is 14 000 000 000 doses, there should still be a little bit of money in it?

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by retrac on Monday March 29, 2021 @09:37PM (#26630444)
Yes, clearly. With COVID-19, there is pretty much guaranteed market for about ten billion doses. Along with direct investment by governments in wealthier countries. Most people, including politicians, want a COVID-19 vaccine real bad.

The parent poster was describing the situation with vaccine development in general, to which COVID-19 is quite the exception. A potential hepatitis C vaccine for example has very different economics, as it would not be deployed anywhere nearly as widely or quickly. Consider that, 40 years after hepatitis B immunization became available, the majority of Americans haven't been jabbed with it.

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by kube-system on Monday March 29, 2021 @10:20PM (#26630667)
Yes, but a pandemic only comes around every hundred years or so. Moderna happened to be in the right place at the right time for this one, but delivering vaccines for a pandemic is not much of a solid business plan.
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by hadlock on Monday March 29, 2021 @08:08PM (#26629884)
Current pricing for mRNA vaccines is something in the $4-7 dollars (that's $7.00 dollars, not $7,000.00 dollars) range. Compare that to one of the Hepatitis C treatments, which costs north of $350,000 by several accounts. Even remdesivir is something like $3000 for a course.
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by failwhaleshark on Monday March 29, 2021 @10:14PM (#26630633)
There are roughly 75 million HCV infections in the world.

That translates to a total cure cost of:

75M * $350k = $26.25T

There are other ARV treatments available which cost now roughly $50-100k and cure in 3 months.

Whereas immunizing everyone against coronaviruses currently costs:

8B * $7 = $56B

Clearly, the costs of the HCV cure are predatory and unreasonable because it doesn't lead to eradication and it's inaccessible to the poor and the third-world.

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by adgjlsfhk1 on Tuesday March 30, 2021 @12:20AM (#26631232)
It's also worth noting that if it's $7 for the payer, there's a lot less than $7 of profit.
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by failwhaleshark on Tuesday March 30, 2021 @11:33AM (#26635804)
The true unit cost is probably $6 per dose. The COVID vaccines may break-even short-term. Long-term, it's probably worth keeping an extra 120M potential customers alive for what will probably result in a small profit.

The true unit cost of HCV cures is unknowable but possibly half of the current price.

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by hutzlibu on Monday March 29, 2021 @08:29PM (#26630028)
"Hepatitis C treatments"

We don't really need the same quantities of that, though.

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by mikecoles on Monday March 29, 2021 @09:53PM (#26630544)
https://www.hhs.gov/hepatitis/learn-about-viral-hepatitis/da...

It can be said that hepatitis care is more necessary than covid.

Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by hutzlibu on Monday March 29, 2021 @09:58PM (#26630561)
The world is not in lockdown becuse of hepatitis, though.
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by TeMPOraL on Tuesday March 30, 2021 @05:56AM (#26632794)
Hepatitis isn't airborne, though, so it doesn't have an exponent threatening to blow up in everyone's face.
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by azernik on Monday March 29, 2021 @07:54PM (#26629792)
Now is a very atypical situation :-P
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by technick on Monday March 29, 2021 @09:28PM (#26630383)
You've never been to Florida have you?
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by azernik on Tuesday March 30, 2021 @08:24PM (#26642159)
Does Florida typically throw billions of dollars at vaccine development?
Re:Moderna mRNA sequence released to GitHub [pdf] by refurb on Monday March 29, 2021 @09:58PM (#26630565)
Vaccines can be very lucrative. Pfizer has billions in sales for Pentacel.