And a lot to be lost if you time your solution wrong by even a couple of months?

I don't mean simply buying/selling, more that the profit opportunities are in the process of overcoming the new trade barriers: finding ways commerce can flow through, or around, the blockages.

That's just commodities futures. All the fat has been shaved off. Very little to get without highly specialized knowledge - like you're the guy about to block coffee shipments or something.