I think that is a perfectly acceptable trade-off given the the long-term goal of eliminating polio entirely. I also think it's totally ok to ask people to bravely face a risk to help others (a fairly small one in this case). I even think it can be ok to ask minors, and parents, to take on those risks in some circumstances, and I think polio elimination is one of them. But it's a trade-off that must be done openly, with consent.
The issue in question is about efficacy, not some unexpected dangerous drug interaction or side effect.
Somewhat lower than expected efficacy wouldn't be "catastrophic".
When you play this utilitarian game, you can kick the consequences can down the road forever, which is why it's better to think of these arguments in more immediate terms.
Absolutely! That's why I said it has to include:
> "how many people die if we pause vaccinations for several weeks and it turns out not to have been an issue"
as a consideration.
When I say immediate, I'm talking about this:
> 2. We have a moral obligation to have conversations in public that involve the safety of injecting substances into people. Regardless of "cost benefit analysis," people simply have a right to be privy to these conversations. It's better for things to go worse and respect this right than for things to go better and not respect it.
I would rather have more people die in an open society than less people die in a closed one.
1. If there's a serious issue with the vaccine and we kept it quiet, the consequences would be catastrophic. Not only in terms of public health but also in terms of public trust. Even a small chance of this outcome far, far outweighs the number of people who will die due to people wrongly deciding not to get the AZ vaccine.
2. We have a moral obligation to have conversations in public that involve the safety of injecting substances into people. Regardless of "cost benefit analysis," people simply have a right to be privy to these conversations. It's better for things to go worse and respect this right than for things to go better and not respect it.