An economic asset is valued based on expected future cash flow. In the last decades however, real estate and some stocks are mainly valued based on expected appreciation. Real estate even generates negative cash flow for most home owners, and some investors.

Per se, it is speculation (in higher prices) rather than investing (in future cash flow).

> If the best returns is on beans and rice, people will starve.

Farmland and equipment are assets, but they are valued based on cash flow from selling produce. Produce is perishable and can only be sold as food, so it will be sold at a market prices regardless of speculation in farmland.

> all of the wealthy will liquidate their stockpiles of stocks(crashing the stock market in the process)

Not "all of the wealthy". Relatively little is required at the margin to crash the stock market, and the majority of "wealth" would follow the market down. Only a tiny proportion would be able to exit at the right moment.

Asset depreciation is an adjustment of the relative value of labour vs. assets.

A possible delineation between "water" and "oil" is whether the thing can be legally used as collateral for loans and how the value is booked. But idk.

Yes, and this is why you see hyper-inflation of most CPI items during supply shocks[0][1], not during money printing. The longer something takes to spoil, the more potential it has to be hoarded. To evaluate our risk, we need to determine what items in the CPI are susceptible to these pressures.

If Bitcoin goes to 1 million USD, will that drown out all other energy? Energy is a piece of the CPI, so that's something we need to watch.

[0]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_Ireland

[1]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970s_energy_crisis

It wont shock energy, but maybe the semiconductor market. Already theres a huge shortage for gpus

I appreciate you posting your thinking on this. I suspect others share your model. I strongly reject the metaphor of oil and water, that there are different monies. In fact if there was such a thing I wouldn't be as worried. Problems could be contained to specific domains. But as you will see one crisis will beget another and another, and no sector will be spared. One will infect the other. There are no barriers. Investors are not constrained in anyway exchange bonds for stocks in a closed system. They can, and do exchange any items of value (cash, commodities, shares, bonds, ETFs, derivatives) and they can do so in multiple markets. Governments will actually try to prevent this through shuttering markets, capital controls etc but they will be too late to prevent economic harm, to say nothing of long term damage to sentiment. Any measures taken merely delay the problem which will be waiting for them when the markets do re-open.

Economies are very much complex systems, not a steady state systems. At times it behaves like a steady state, but at other times there are significant shifts that break the previous paradigm. You only have to consult any history book of the 20th century to prove this to yourself. I strongly suggest that this a Pascal type wager that you do want to take. You want to assume my argument is correct and hedge against massive inflation. Your livelihood, and possibly your life depends on it.

One way you might convince yourself is if you look at similar situations in economies that were not governed by the Fed. There are many: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperin...

I would argue that the Fed, IMF etc actually agree with my position and that is what is driving their desire for new Central Bank Digital Currencies (which IMO are a sham to profit of the public ignorance of actual cryptos and provide a smoke screen while a new global currency is rolled out that will be used to economically control everyone) however I strongly doubt that they will be able implement such a thing before the collapse begins (and it merely delays the inevitable anyway).

Therefore governments (where they can) will default to precious metals to back their currencies. The major winner will be China, as it has the world's largest actual gold reserves (despite the official figures). The US will then be using a gold dollar and China will dictate its price. China now effectively rules the world.