Mullane was on STS-27 -- that was a disaster on the level of Challenger or Columbia but by pure luck they avoided a deadly ending. The failures were predictable. And this was the second flight after Challenger's last.

I think the underlying point is that there are cognitive biases that prevent decision makers from effectively understanding that risk. It’s very much like financial crashes; after the fact it becomes obvious the risk was there but our biases prevent most people from seeing/understanding it effectively in the moment