The average YouTube user (>18yo) spends 41 minutes per day on YouTube. Let's guess that an average view duration is 10 minutes (~80% of an average video of 11.7 minutes). That gives us 4 video views per day.
The average per view is $0.18, so $0.72 per day. Multiply by 30 to get a month, and you end up with $21.60.
YouTube Premium is $11.99/month. So yes, there's a huge prize difference - the advertising revenue would be ~$10 more than the YouTube Premium price.
https://blog.hootsuite.com/youtube-stats-marketers/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1026923/youtube-video-ca...
https://influencermarketinghub.com/how-much-do-youtubers-mak...
"On Average the YouTube channel can receive $18 per 1,000 ad views. This equates to $3 - $5 per 1000 video views."
I.e. 0.3 to 0.5 cent per video of which Google pockets 68%:32% which gives about 0.2 cent per video for Google per video view.
The first stats site says about 9 views per visit and day, so 9 videos a day is about 1.8 cent, times 30 days is 54 cents.
A year would be 6.5USD for the average user - about half a month of Premium.
However, as far as I understand, Google pays out the ads for premium customers, so you shouldn't count just the "to Google" portion. That's off in your calculation, to a factor of about 3. Using $4 (the average in $3 to $5) and 9 videos per day, we get 0.4cents * 9 * 365 = $13.14/year - a bit over a month of premium. Still devastating to my argument, of course.
Newest public data I can find says there are 20 million YouTube Premium subscribers. There's 2 billion monthly actives on YouTube - ie, 99% are not YouTube Premium subscribers.
https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/youtube-tops-20-millio...
Side note, Youtube Premium includes music that I wouldn't have used, so maybe the cost of the service makes sense for people who use that.