Re:When Everyone’s a Genius: A Few Thoughts on Speculation
by wskinner on Thursday February 25, 2021 @09:55AM
(#26263348)
How do you compute real value? And does your model for real value include the quantity of money and future expectations for the same?
Re:When Everyone’s a Genius: A Few Thoughts on Speculation
by quickthrowman on Thursday February 25, 2021 @02:29PM
(#26267080)
Ok, enjoy your treasuries, I’ll stick with dollar-cost averaging S&P 500. I’m sure your valuation models are better than Wall Street.
Hope the treasury yields moving up don’t wreck you, if yields move N%, then bond values move (N*years remaining)% down. Disregard if you buy individual bonds and hold until redemption.
Re:When Everyone’s a Genius: A Few Thoughts on Speculation
by jdmoreira on Thursday February 25, 2021 @03:52PM
(#26268138)
That’s great and all. S&P 500 is a great passive investment. Just keep buying every month whatever the price for long enough and you will most likely hit 10% a year on average.
The problem is that you could lose money for 10 years. 1970-80.
Mindless buying S&P 500 is great but you might want to do better. Most people will do worse if they try to beat the index but some people will do 20% a year for as long as they keep buying good businesses at good prices.
To use my Ford Fiesta analogy, if you come to me and say “this Ford Fiesta is only 60k! That’s 40 percent off! I would say you’re using a sleazy sales tactic on me, because it’s not worth 60k either. Comparing it with some other, even more outrageous price and then claiming that it’s therefore cheap is not something I’m going to fall for.