They told people that they did have enough data, and that it was only “8% effective” in people over 65, which was 100% bullshit.

Preprint data on hospital admissions seems pretty encouraging for AZD-1222: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n523

It looks great, but as it's from today, I understand that people couldn't have known about it.

I'll look at the details, as I have to advise my parents about which vaccine to accept, which is a very difficult decision for me.

My mom is a teacher a few years under 60. She got a chance for AZ vaccine. Initially she declined because the vaccine was not approved in our country for people over 60. However, we decided it's better to take this vaccine now, even if it's inferior than to risk her getting covid unvaccinated. The alternative would be to wait a few months for the next vaccination phase for people with chronic illness (she has diabetes) - although it may very well be she would get AZ then anyway.

I understand, it’s not an easy thing to have that responsibility. Everyone wants to do the best for their family. There is no silver bullet, it’s not possible to have total foresight. I guess all you can do is get all the reputable information you can and weigh it against what you know about their personal circumstances. Best of luck to you and your parents.

Thanks!

Right now they don't trust the Chinese/Russian vaccines, only vaccines approved by the EU, and I also prefer them to wait a few more months in their apartments.

The problem is that once they accept a vaccine, they can't get another type, as only one type of vaccine is allowed per person because of the current vaccine shortage in the world.

I'm on the same boat with one of my parents going to get vaccinated tomorrow but without knowing which vaccine before going to the vaccination center. I still think its safer to get the vaccine anyway since the side effects are mild and only last for 24 hours. Even if it doesn't give a very high percentage of protection it at least makes it less likely to result into need of hospital or worse. Shortages will eventually be overcome and new versions for the new viral variants will be out anyway in the meantime I believe its best to improve our loved ones quality of life. I assume we'll all be still taking precautions for a long time even after we all get vaccinated. It's similar to wearing a mask then, decreases the chances of getting sick but it's not 100%

Wasn’t it the old ‘absence of evidence =\= evidence of absence’ that should have applied?

There is no reason that response to a vaccine would fall off a cliff above a certain numerical age – the human body just doesn’t work like that. Yes, as people get older their immune responses to vaccines may weaken – but this will be unpredictable in a large group, and likely dependent on far more factors than just chronological age.

If by chance the study hadn’t recruited anybody who was 51 years old, would you have felt uncomfortable extrapolating responses from 50 and 52-year-olds?

I don't want to play with my parents' life, as I love them, so no. They are locked up in their apartments for 6 months now, as I don't allow them out. Taking a suboptimal vaccine would hurt more than not having a vaccine, as they will need to start leaving their apartment in the summer, so they rather wait a few months more for the best vaccine (or more data) than have a risk of dying from COVID.

I bought them big screen TV, new furniture and elliptic machine so they can spend their time in the apartment while still working out.

You have to also consider the effects of isolation and lockdown as well especially on the elderly. Obviously risk of death is worse with a bad vaccine but with more people taking the AZ vaccine we'll soon know if its effective and if it is, they will be able to leave their home sooner than waiting out for another vaccine.

UK clearly has enough Data on AstraZeneca in "old people" by now and AstraZeneca will most certainly be cleared for 65+ any day now.