Re:Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
by ncallaway on Tuesday February 23, 2021 @10:10AM
(#26238125)
I think that's a totally fair point, and a reason that assumption might be incorrect.
To be clear I don't mean "a pretty reasonable assumption" to mean it was exceptionally likely to be true (with, say 95% confidence) in my mind in this it's more like a 65% chance of being true.
I guess I was using it as shorthand for "my prior is >50%"
Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked if that assumption was wrong and if it is, it makes sense that it'd be for the reasons you outline
Not necessarily. They also removed one big set of gatherings: Work.
Workplaces and the commute to them are massive contributors. Many people are in (loose) contact with many more people at work than at a large Thanksgiving dinner, and contact tracing is a lot more effective for the Thanksgiving dinner (everyone there is a close contact) vs. work ("oh, but they were more than 1.5 meters apart, so it doesn't count" because you can't quarantine everyone in a 100+ people open plan office that you've been saturating with infectious aerosols for 8 hours).