Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
by whatshisface on Friday February 19, 2021 @01:19PM
(#26196103)
When hurricane forecasters predict that a hurricane will strike a city, would that be evidence of their pro-hurricane bias? If they were consistently overeager to predict hurricane strikes, would that be evidence that they supported hurricanes, or merely were overcalibrated to predicting them?
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Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
by SpicyLemonZest on Friday February 19, 2021 @01:26PM
(#26196208)
If a forecaster saw a hurricane make landfall in Texas and still gave it a 15% chance of hitting Alabama, that'd be pretty far beyond simple poor calibration, and I think it'd be justified to ask some pointed questions about why they're so dedicated to their bad prediction.