News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election by avarun on Friday February 19, 2021 @12:41PM (#26195645)
Right, and as mentioned in the article: The markets were guessing Trump would win after he had already lost. If that's not evidence of a political bias to you I'm not sure why.
Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election by whatshisface on Friday February 19, 2021 @01:19PM (#26196103)
When hurricane forecasters predict that a hurricane will strike a city, would that be evidence of their pro-hurricane bias? If they were consistently overeager to predict hurricane strikes, would that be evidence that they supported hurricanes, or merely were overcalibrated to predicting them?
Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election by SpicyLemonZest on Friday February 19, 2021 @01:26PM (#26196208)
If a forecaster saw a hurricane make landfall in Texas and still gave it a 15% chance of hitting Alabama, that'd be pretty far beyond simple poor calibration, and I think it'd be justified to ask some pointed questions about why they're so dedicated to their bad prediction.