Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
by camjohnson26 on Friday February 19, 2021 @02:31PM
(#26197010)
They would need a counter party to be able to place the bet though, and those people have an equal incentive to keep the person safe. If no counter party exists then there’s no incentive.
Plus this ignores risks outside the market, like the risk the would be assassin gets caught and sent to prison.
Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
by btilly on Friday February 19, 2021 @03:09PM
(#26197462)
It is a winner take all market. All money placed in the market goes to the winner.
So if I want Donald Trump dead and am willing to pay a million dollars, I start the market and put a million dollars in for tomorrow. Eventually he dies and someone collects. Almost certainly not me, and not necessarily an assassin.
But any would-be assassin who wants can place a bet and now has a million dollars riding on whether they succeed.
This is not novel, the idea has been around for a quarter century. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market for more.
Opening a market on when they will die that goes to the person who is closest to the right date, now any would-be assassin can place their bet and try to win. And the target may know that people are hunting for them, but won't be forewarned of when.